House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) has a message for anyone reading the polls ahead of next month's midterm elections: don't believe them. At a rally in Corpus Christi, Texas, on Tuesday, Johnson, stumping for Republican candidates, said his travels through swing districts have convinced him the GOP is quietly building support, even as surveys predict Democrats could make significant gains and potentially capture the House.

"Something is happening. It feels like 2024 to me," Johnson said, referring to the year Republicans won control of the Senate. His theory? Pollsters may be undersampling Republicans while oversampling Democrats, producing results that fail to reflect voter sentiment in closely contested districts.

Johnson also questioned whether surveys are reaching Republican voters at all, saying he has not encountered rally attendees who recently participated in political polling.

“I go to airplane hangars and big arenas like this all over the country. I can’t find anyone who comes to our events who has entered a poll,” the Speaker said.

"Republicans don’t trust pollsters anymore, OK?" he told the crowd.

Polls Signal Midterm Headwinds for GOP

Johnson's optimism comes as recent polling suggests Republicans may struggle to reshape the midterm landscape, even if President Donald Trump ends the Iran war or delivers economic improvements before Election Day. A Politico Poll conducted by PF Global found that most Americans would not become more likely to support Republicans if gas prices fell by $1 per gallon, 100,000 jobs were created, or the conflict ended.

Democratic and undecided voters were particularly unlikely to change their preferences, according to the poll published Saturday.

According to Silver Bulletin polling figures cited by the BBC, Trump's approval rating has fallen from just above 50% at the start of his second term to about 37%. His rating stood at around 42% when the U.S. and Israel launched airstrikes against Iran in late February, before dropping below 40% shortly afterward.

With Republicans holding a narrow House majority, shifting voter sentiment could affect control of Congress in the midterms, when all 435 House seats and 35 Senate seats are being contested.

Johnson Echoes Tom Lee

Speaking of skewed polling, in May, Fundstrat's Head of Research Tom Lee criticized the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment survey, alleging partisan bias and arguing that differences in respondents' political affiliations may skew results.

Lee highlighted a sentiment reading of 32 among Democrats versus 87 among Republicans and said 25% of Democratic respondents believe inflation is above 100%. Lee also noted that 51% of Democratic respondents scored below the survey's all-time low reading of 47.6, questioning how a monthly survey of roughly 3,700 people captures broader economic perceptions.

Lee also said the University of Michigan's shift to online-only surveys has resulted in a respondent pool that is roughly 66% Democratic and 33% Republican, which he argued does not reflect the U.S. population fairly.

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