Kamala Harris leads the Democratic presidential field by 15 points in a new poll, but prediction market traders give her just a 7% chance of winning the 2028 nomination.
The Financial Times/Focaldata poll, released Sunday, puts Harris at 30%, California Gov. Gavin Newsom at 15%, and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg at 9% each. Harris also leads the RealClearPolling average by 12 points.
On Polymarket, however, Ocasio-Cortez leads at 18%, followed by Georgia Sen. Jon Ossoff and Newsom at around 14%. Harris ranks fourth at about 7%.
Why Harris' Lead May Be Deceptive
The gap partly reflects different questions: polls capture voters' current preferences, while bettors forecast who will eventually win the nomination.
But Focaldata's own research suggests Harris' advantage may be less secure than it looks.
The firm's April study found that Newsom and Ocasio-Cortez attracted more support relative to their name recognition than Harris, suggesting they could gain ground as Democratic voters become more familiar with them.
Harris' support in Focaldata's polling has slipped from 38% in May to 30% in October.
The Wall Street Journal reported last week that her husband, Doug Emhoff, privately doesn't want her to run again, while some donors consider a third presidential bid a long shot. The newspaper said Harris remains undecided.
On Kalshi, traders give Harris a 56% chance of announcing a campaign before October 1, 2027. Taken together, the two prediction market prices suggest traders see Harris as likely to run, but unlikely to win.
Kalshi and MarketDash have an existing data collaboration agreement.
Why the Markets Could Still Be Wrong
Focaldata also identified a reason Harris may be harder to dislodge than traders expect.
The firm's research found that large parts of the Democratic coalition viewed her 2024 defeat as a case of being "failed, not failing," suggesting voters still don't blame her for the loss.
A separate Verasight poll supports that picture. It found 69% of Democrats and Democratic-leaning voters viewed Harris favorably, compared with 65% for Ocasio-Cortez and 61% for Newsom.
Harris could also benefit if Newsom, her closest polling rival, follows through on his promise not to challenge her.
"I wouldn't run if she ran," he told CNN in September, warning that a contest between them could amount to "mutual assured destruction."
Verasight CEO Ben Leff has cautioned against treating market prices as inherently reliable. In a recent exclusive interview with MarketDash, he said he would trust a high-quality poll when comparable forecasts diverge, partly because large traders can exert considerable influence.
Even the betting favorites face uncertainty of their own. Ossoff, currently tied for second on Polymarket, told Jen Psaki in August: "I have zero interest in running for president in 2028."
