Delta Air Lines Inc. (NYSE:DAL) has a potential recovery story, with Susquehanna seeing its stock reaching $95. But rising fuel costs have forced the airline to slash its earnings outlook, creating a gap between strong travel demand and the profits investors ultimately care about. Three risks could determine whether that upside materializes.

Wall Street Sees 18% Upside

Susquehanna lowered its price target on Delta to $95 from $100 while maintaining a Positive rating, according to The Fly. Against a share price of $80.77, the revised target implies roughly 18% upside.

Delta reported third-quarter operating revenue of $17.6 billion, up 16% year over year, supported by premium travel and resilient demand. The airline also expects fourth-quarter revenue growth of approximately 20%, according to its earnings announcement.

However, stronger sales have not prevented a deterioration in its profit outlook.

Risk 1: Fuel Costs Keep Climbing

Delta cut its 2026 adjusted earnings forecast to $5.10–$5.60 per share from $6.50–$7.50 previously. The company expects its annual fuel bill to rise by approximately $6 billion compared with 2025.

Delta's projected fourth-quarter all-in fuel price of around $4.25 per gallon would also exceed the $3.61 reported for the third quarter. Higher fares can offset some of that pressure, but customers may resist further increases if ticket prices rise too far.

For investors, the key question is whether Delta can pass on enough of the fuel shock without weakening demand.

Risk 2: Revenue Growth May Not Protect Margins

Delta's premium and corporate travel businesses remain important strengths, but revenue growth alone does not guarantee stronger profitability. Higher operating expenses can absorb additional ticket sales, leaving earnings below expectations even when planes are full.

If fuel stays expensive or competing airlines add capacity aggressively, Delta could struggle to sustain fare increases. Investors need evidence that premium demand and pricing power can translate into recovering margins, rather than merely offsetting higher costs.

Risk 3: Geopolitics Disrupts Expansion

Delta has postponed its planned nonstop Atlanta-to-Riyadh service until March 2027 following regional security concerns. The route would have marked its first direct passenger service to Saudi Arabia, opening a potential growth avenue.

The delay does not eliminate that opportunity, but it illustrates how geopolitical instability can disrupt expansion plans and complicate international operations.

Investment takeaway: Susquehanna's $95 target offers a potential recovery path, not a guarantee. Delta needs to contain fuel expenses, protect margins and execute its growth plans before investors can confidently price in that upside.