Anthropic's reported pursuit of a $2 trillion valuation is putting the artificial intelligence boom to the test. As the maker of Claude prepares for a potential initial public offering, investors have to weigh its rapid growth against the enormous cost of building and monetizing AI infrastructure.
"The debate surrounding upcoming mega-cap tech IPOs isn't about fading excitement for AI. It's a direct function of a high cost of capital," Bilal Little, Global ETF Strategist at Direxion, says.
For ETF investors, the question is which funds offer exposure to businesses capable of turning AI demand into sustainable returns.
Anthropic's IPO and AI ETF Exposure
The Tema Photonics & Optical ETF (NYSE:LAZR) offers indirect pre-IPO exposure to Anthropic through a special purpose vehicle. Tema reported that Anthropic accounted for 11.8% of the fund's portfolio as of Sep. 23. LAZR also invests in companies involved in photonics, optical networking and data-center communications.
A $2 trillion IPO valuation would not automatically translate into equivalent gains for LAZR. The SPV's valuation, IPO pricing and other portfolio holdings could all affect returns.
Additionally, the Anthropic AI Lab Ecosystem ETF (NYSE:ANTW) provides broader exposure to publicly traded companies associated with the AI ecosystem, rather than direct exposure to Anthropic.
Semiconductor ETFs Face the Profitability Test
The cost of capital could become an important factor for semiconductor stocks as investors assess whether massive AI investments can generate returns that justify their valuations. Even if demand for AI chips remains strong, companies could face pressure if hyperscalers slow spending or if earnings fail to keep pace with expectations.
"The AI trade is no longer an isolated growth narrative or a hedge against macro volatility. It has become the single most macro-sensitive, long-duration asset class in the market today," Little said.
That makes semiconductor ETFs worth watching as investors weigh AI growth prospects against profitability and valuation risks.
The iShares Semiconductor ETF (NASDAQ:SOXX) and VanEck Semiconductor ETF (NASDAQ:SMH) offer concentrated exposure to chipmakers benefiting from AI computing demand. Their performance could reflect not just continued demand for processors, but also how investors value the earnings potential of semiconductor companies.
"When capital is expensive, the market shifts away from rewarding uncapped compute spending toward demanding proven financial discipline, specifically strong gross margins, positive operating income, and sustainable growth," Little said.
For these ETFs, the key question is whether AI-driven revenue growth can translate into sustainable earnings that justify current valuations.
Power and Infrastructure Could Be Another AI Trade
AI expansion requires electricity, grid connections and data center infrastructure, creating potential opportunities beyond semiconductor stocks.
"Data center projects are running into real-world constraints around power availability, permitting, environmental reviews and grid connections," Little said.
The Utilities Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSE:XLU) provides exposure to utility companies that could benefit from rising electricity demand, while the Global X U.S. Infrastructure Development ETF (BATS:PAVE) invests in businesses involved in construction, equipment and infrastructure development. Both face risks beyond AI spending, including financing costs and execution delays.
The Bottom Line
"In that sense, the bottleneck in AI is increasingly moving from demand to delivery," Little said.
Anthropic's potential IPO could sharpen scrutiny of AI valuations, making LAZR, ANTW, SOXX, SMH, XLU, and PAVE relevant funds to watch across the AI ecosystem. The next phase of the trade may depend not just on how much companies spend, but on whether they can turn that investment into revenue, earnings and sustainable returns.
