Tesla Inc. (TSLA)'s next valuation test may have less to do with how many electric vehicles it sells and more to do with how much money it can make from the cars already on the road.

Yorkville Ives analyst Dan Ives sees autonomy and robotics reshaping Tesla's future, but turning that vision into recurring revenue is what could determine whether his $500 price target holds up.

The $500 Case Goes Beyond EVs

In his latest research note, Ives maintains an Outperform rating and a $500 price target, arguing that Tesla is evolving into a "physical AI" platform spanning vehicles, autonomous driving, humanoid robots and energy storage. He says investors who value Tesla primarily as an automaker risk overlooking the software and services that could eventually generate revenue on top of its existing vehicle business.

The foundation is Tesla's fleet of millions of vehicles, which generates real-world driving data to train its Full Self-Driving (FSD) system. Unlike companies building autonomous technology without a comparable installed vehicle base, Tesla can connect data collection, software development and vehicle manufacturing within one ecosystem.

But the opportunity depends on monetization, not just technology. As Tesla's latest shareholder update shows, FSD adoption is growing, with more than 55% of new North American deliveries including FSD subscriptions in the reported quarter. That creates a software revenue stream today while building the technical foundation for a larger autonomous-driving business.

Robotaxi Is the Real Test

Ives sees Robotaxi as the bridge between Tesla's current automotive business and its potential autonomy-driven future. Tesla reported about 2.5 million cumulative paid Robotaxi miles in its latest quarterly update, while expanding operations and preparing to deploy its purpose-built Cybercab.

The distinction between paid miles and a profitable business remains important. More rides can demonstrate demand and help Tesla gather driving data, but investors still need evidence of fleet utilization, operating costs and revenue per vehicle. Scaling unsupervised operations across more cities would also require regulatory progress and consistent safety performance.

Cybercab could improve the economics by removing conventional driving controls and designing the vehicle specifically for autonomous service. Yet production capacity, including the availability of 4680 battery packs cited in Ives' note, could constrain how quickly Tesla expands its fleet.

What Investors Should Watch

Ives also sees Tesla's Optimus robots and energy-storage business expanding the company's addressable markets. Those opportunities could strengthen the $500 case, but they also require investment before their contribution to earnings becomes clear.

Tesla's next test is whether it can scale Robotaxi operations while preserving the cash-generating power of its vehicle business. Investors should watch fleet growth, paid miles, FSD subscriptions and Cybercab production for evidence that physical AI is becoming a measurable business rather than a valuation promise.

TSLA Price Action: Tesla shares were up 3.15% at $386.80 at the time of publication on Friday, according to market data.