Silver has had a wild couple of years. A spectacular rally through the end of 2025 turned into a blow-off top in early 2026 that pushed the price to $120 an ounce. Since then, it's been a strong drawdown, bottoming near $55 and recently trading around $60. The iShares Silver Trust (SLV) is down 15.67% year to date.
That kind of volatility is standard for a metal that lives a double life as both a precious and an industrial commodity. But the interesting part isn't the price chart. It's that Wall Street and resource specialists now disagree sharply about what comes next. For Deutsche Bank, the shortage is over.
"Peak silver scarcity is clearly in the rear-view mirror," Daniel Ghali, the bank's head of metals research, wrote in a report. He expects prices to average $70 an ounce by the second quarter of 2027, and he says the market could tip into surplus as soon as next year.
Where Deutsche Sees the Risk
The bank's case rests on two pillars: more metal sitting in storage and weaker industrial demand. At the end of August, London's commercial vaults held more than 914 million ounces. More than 300 million of those ounces were freely available, up 70% since October 2025. Stockpiles at CME and Shanghai warehouses have grown too.
Ghali says that "probably reflects more than a simple reshuffling of inventories across jurisdictions."
"Combined inventories in London and CME warehouses should put to rest any concerns around metal scarcity," he wrote. He also pointed to thrifting, the industry term for manufacturers using less silver, which "now threaten[s] to create a glut."
Solar is the main pressure point. Earlier this year, silver made up more than 30% of the cost of making a solar module. That reality pushed manufacturers toward copper-coated pastes and thinner electrical contacts. Deutsche expects global silver use in solar to fall by more than 20% this year, and by 33% in China.
Investment flows add more risk. If the pattern from past Fed hiking cycles repeats, silver-backed funds could release about 40 million ounces by December 2027. India's imports are running 25% below last year's level. The one upside risk Deutsche can't explain is the persistent premium on Chinese silver.
Line in the Sand
John Feneck of Feneck Consulting Group agrees silver could fall further. He just sees that as a chance to buy. In a recent interview, he admitted he sold part of his holdings above $100 against a cost basis of $17 an ounce, and he says he is "disciplined enough to wait" before buying again.
"The technicals tell you that [$54-$55] held before, and I want to see it hold again," Feneck said. "If it doesn't hold again, you're going to test 50 because 50 was the breakout zone, right? From the 1980s and then most recently a few months ago."
In terms of market exposure, Feneck prefers silver developers to producers. His reasoning: a lack of analyst coverage creates more opportunities for those willing to do the work.
His example is BlackRock Silver Corp. (BKRRF). The company's Tonopah West project in Nevada holds 123 million ounces of silver equivalent. Its preliminary economic assessment put all-in sustaining costs at $17.50 an ounce.
For every million ounces sold at $60, that works out to about $42.5 million above sustaining costs, even after a 50% decline in the price of the metal.
"If they were producing today, they'd be still killing it hand over fist," Feneck said.
Why Tungsten Gets a Quarter of the Fund
While staying optimistic but in waiting mode on silver, Feneck's biggest bet, 25% of the portfolio, is now tungsten. It's a critical metal essential for heavy-duty machinery, but also for kinetic munitions and extreme-heat components in the aerospace and defense industry.
The U.S. hasn't produced tungsten in more than 11 years, and Western supply chains remain exposed to foreign output. Feneck expects the price to "remain elevated for a long, long time," but sees few projects advanced enough to fill that gap.
He holds Fireweed Metals Corp. (FWEDF) and Rackla Metals Inc. (RMETF). He also owns Skyline Builders Group Holding Limited (KAZR), which owns 70% of CAS Resources and its Kazakh tungsten deposit. CAS lists a Washington address, and Feneck says the company is "100% supportive of the U.S. and our initiatives."
Supply shortages are only part of his reasoning. The niche opportunity's constraints also prevent much Wall Street capital from entering. "There's no futures market," he said. "There's no ETF tracker. You have to buy equities."
