Peter Thiel, cofounder of PayPal Holdings Inc. and a major Republican donor, said he doubts any 2028 GOP nominee can easily win the White House, even Vice President JD Vance, whom he has long backed.
In an episode of the "MD Meets" podcast released Thursday, Thiel said he remains a "Vance partisan" but called it "the wrong question" to debate who between Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio would be the stronger nominee. "I worry that it will be very hard for either candidate to win," Thiel said.
Thiel More Focused On Democrats' 2028 Direction
Thiel said he's less concerned with GOP infighting than with where the Democratic Party is headed.
He also put roughly even odds on Democrats nominating a democratic socialist in 2028, calling that outcome the "end of America" and arguing the Democratic Party carries more institutional weight than the GOP.
Deep Ties to Vance
Before entering politics, Vance worked at Mithril Capital, a firm Thiel cofounded, and has credited Thiel as a major influence. Thiel, who mostly stayed away from the 2024 election, donated $15 million to a pro-Vance super PAC during the 2022 Ohio Senate primary and gave $3 million this year to a group fighting California's proposed wealth tax.
Vance's time at Mithril was not his first connection to Thiel. The two met at Yale Law School in 2011, where Thiel became a formative mentor. In a blog post for Catholic magazine The Lamp, Vance wrote, "Peter's talk remains the most significant moment of my time at Yale Law School. He articulated a feeling that had until then remained unformed: that I was obsessed with achievement in se — not as an end to something meaningful, but to win a social competition."
Thiel's political focus comes as he also expands his interests internationally. He reportedly purchased a $12 million estate in Buenos Aires this year, as interest in Argentine President Javier Milei's libertarian economic policies grows in Silicon Valley.
The Vance-Rubio question has drawn other GOP voices too. Commentator Ben Shapiro said in August he'd bet on Vance in prediction markets like Kalshi, calling a Rubio challenge a political "prisoner's dilemma."
