Exxon Mobil Corp. (XOM) thinks the world is about to get a lot thirstier for electricity. In its 2026 Global Outlook, the energy giant projects global power demand will surge roughly 65% by 2050, driven by rising living standards, industrial activity, data centers and electric vehicles.

Here's the twist: even with all that electrification, ExxonMobil expects oil and natural gas to keep supplying more than half of the global energy mix in 2050, powered by demand from manufacturing, chemicals and heavy-duty transportation. The company also expects global carbon dioxide emissions to decline as efficiency improves and lower-emission technologies expand. Just not as fast as some might hope.

Coal Hangs Around, Emissions Forecast Gets Revised Up

Coal is expected to make up 15% of the global energy mix in 2050, down from 25% in 2025. A decline, sure, but coal stays important in many countries.

On emissions, ExxonMobil now projects annual global energy-related CO2 emissions of 30 billion metric tons in 2050, down from 36 billion metric tons in 2025. That's progress, but it's higher than Exxon's previous projection of 27 billion metric tons. It also sits well above the 11 billion metric tons that represents the average of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's "Likely Below 2°C" scenarios cited in Exxon's report.

Prasanna Joshi, Exxon's director of economics and energy, said emissions at the company's projected level could lead to global temperatures rising by 2.5 to 3 degrees Celsius, Reuters reported.

ExxonMobil also lowered its 2050 forecast for carbon capture and underground storage to 2 billion metric tons from a previous estimate of 3.1 billion metric tons, according to Reuters.

Electricity And Oil Demand Rise

Global electricity demand is projected to rise about 65% from 2025 levels by 2050. Electricity's share of global energy use should increase from about 20% today to roughly 30%.

Oil demand is expected to reach about 105 million barrels per day in 2050, up from just over 100 million barrels per day in 2025. Demand is projected to stabilize after 2030 but remain above 100 million barrels per day through 2050.

Natural gas demand is forecast to rise about 20%, reaching roughly 520 billion cubic feet per day in 2050 from 440 billion cubic feet per day in 2025.

The company cautioned that its outlook is a projection rather than a prediction of a single outcome. Future energy demand and emissions could change based on technology, government policy, geopolitics and consumer behavior.