Here's a fun twist for a Monday: the stocks everyone figured would get steamrolled by artificial intelligence were the ones doing the steamrolling.
Calls from AI leaders to slow the development of advanced models could trigger a near-term rotation in technology stocks, according to Melius Research analyst Ben Reitzes. He told CNBC on Monday that companies viewed as vulnerable to AI disruption could benefit from the debate. Stocks that could gain from lower AI capital spending may also attract investors.
"What is going to happen today is that the AI losers will actually go up," Reitzes said.
And that's pretty much what happened. CrowdStrike Holdings Inc. (CRWD), SailPoint Inc. (SAIL) and Palo Alto Networks Inc. (PANW) each surged roughly 13% to 15%. Meanwhile, ServiceNow Inc. (NOW) and HubSpot Inc. (HUBS) gained about 7% to 11%.
Not bad for a group that spent most of the AI boom hearing that it was next on the chopping block.
The Train Has Left The Station
Before anyone gets too excited about an AI spending slowdown, Reitzes isn't calling for one. He argued that the broader AI investment cycle remains intact. He pointed to recursive self-improvement, or RSI, as a major driver of future computing demand.
"That train has left the station," Reitzes told CNBC.
In other words, the debate about pumping the brakes is real, but the tracks are already laid. He also expects cybersecurity demand to surge as more powerful AI models create new security risks. That could require more computing power and AI models designed to defend against other models. Which is a delightfully meta way to keep the spending going.
OpenAI And Anthropic Are Running Away With It
Reitzes said OpenAI and Anthropic have established a significant lead in advanced AI. He compared the industry to a 100-yard race, with the two companies already at the 70-yard line.
That position could allow the AI leaders to help shape industry guardrails while protecting their competitive advantages, he said. It's the classic move: get far enough ahead, then help write the rules.
Reitzes expects industry leaders to eventually coordinate on safeguards and communicate a clearer path forward to investors. He suggested NVIDIA Corp. (NVDA) CEO Jensen Huang could play a role in bringing key players together.
For investors, the immediate concern is uncertainty around AI spending. However, Reitzes' comments suggest calls for tighter safeguards do not necessarily signal an end to the AI infrastructure boom.
So the takeaway is a bit of a two-for-one: the market can rotate into the perceived AI losers without the AI winners losing their footing. At least for now, the slowdown talk is a trade, not a trend.
