Bloom Energy Corp. (NYSE: BE) is having a good Friday. The stock is up 3.05% to $242.15, continuing Thursday's momentum, and it's not hard to see why. Two big forces are at play: the growing belief that the Fed is done hiking rates, and the possibility that Bloom Energy gets added to the S&P 500 index.
Let's start with the macro picture. On Thursday, Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller gave a speech that had rate-cut enthusiasts nodding along. He said that "if recent cooling trends in prices continue, monetary policy may not require additional tightening." In plain English, that means the Fed might be done raising rates, which is music to the ears of growth stock investors. Lower rates make future earnings more valuable, and they also reduce the appeal of bonds, pushing money into equities. The Nasdaq is up 0.55% today, while the S&P 500 is down a hair, so the market is clearly in a risk-on mood.
But the real catalyst for Bloom Energy is the index inclusion chatter. Prediction market Kalshi currently gives Bloom Energy a 46% chance of being added to the S&P 500, making it the frontrunner. For context, SoFi is at 18% and Pure Storage is at 14%. Why does this matter? If Bloom Energy gets added, index funds that track the S&P 500 will be forced to buy the stock, creating a wave of demand. S&P Dow Jones Indices is expected to announce its official index adjustments on Friday, so the speculation is reaching a fever pitch.
Now, let's talk about the technicals, because that's where the story gets interesting. The stock is still in a longer-term uptrend, trading 27.6% above its 200-day simple moving average (SMA) of $191.21. That's a bullish sign, suggesting buyers are in control of the bigger picture. However, it's also trading 2.3% below its 100-day SMA of $249.61, which means the intermediate trend is still a question mark. The question is whether this bounce can reclaim that level.
The near-term setup is a bit mixed. The 20-day SMA ($218.07) is still below the 50-day SMA ($226.29), which is a bearish crossover that suggests the recent downswing hasn't fully played out. But here's the good news: the stock is now back above both the 20-day and 50-day averages, up 11.8% and 7.8% respectively. That's often seen as a "regain the short-term trend" signal, if it can hold.
For traders, the key levels to watch are clear. On the upside, resistance is at $253.50, which aligns with the stock's attempt to reclaim the 100-day SMA area. On the downside, support is at $242, a close-in floor near the current price where buyers have recently defended the tape.
So, what's the takeaway? Bloom Energy is riding a wave of optimism, but it's not without its challenges. The index inclusion news could be a game-changer, but it's far from guaranteed. And while the technicals show a stock that's trying to find its footing, the bearish crossover between the 20-day and 50-day SMAs is a reminder that the path higher isn't a straight line. For now, the market is betting on Bloom Energy, and Friday's price action suggests that bet is paying off.
