Marvell Technology, Inc. (NASDAQ: MRVL) had a quarter that most companies would kill for. Revenue beat, earnings beat, guidance raised, and a CEO who's practically glowing about the future. So why did the stock drop nearly 8% in Friday's premarket trading?
Because in the world of high-flying AI stocks, good news is never enough. Investors want perfect news, and Marvell's report came with a wrinkle that took some of the shine off.
Marvell Beats Q2 Estimates, Raises Growth Expectations
Let's start with the numbers, because they're genuinely impressive. Marvell reported second-quarter revenue of $2.74 billion and adjusted EPS of 94 cents, both beating consensus estimates. The company's Data Center portfolio continues to be the star, and management isn't shy about it.
For the third quarter, Marvell guided revenue to $3.15 billion, plus or minus 5%, and adjusted EPS to $1.10, plus or minus 5 cents. They also expect an adjusted gross margin of 57.5% to 58.5%. Those are solid numbers, and they suggest the momentum isn't slowing down.
CEO Matt Murphy went a step further, raising Marvell's revenue target for next year to roughly $18 billion. That implies about 50% growth, which is the kind of number that makes investors sit up and take notice.
Google Deal Clarification Cools Investor Enthusiasm
So what's the problem? It's partly about the Google deal. CNBC noted that Marvell's data center business is growing more than 60%, supported by optical components that connect AI servers and custom chips. Murphy expects those custom chips to more than double. That's the kind of growth that gets people excited.
But here's the wrinkle: Murphy said revenue from Marvell's recently announced Alphabet Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOGL) (NASDAQ: GOOG) Google warrant agreement is already included in next year's projections. In other words, the deal that Wall Street had been treating as extra upside is actually baked into the numbers.
That clarification reduced some investor enthusiasm. The market had been viewing the Google agreement as a bonus on top of existing expectations, and now it's just part of the plan. Murphy said the larger contribution from the deal should come the following year, which means investors will have to wait for the real payoff.
CNBC also pointed to elevated expectations after Marvell shares had climbed about 184% year to date and nearly 30% over the previous month. When a stock runs up that much, any hint of disappointment can trigger a sell-off, even if the news is fundamentally good.
Seymour Prefers NVIDIA At Current Valuations
Tim Seymour, founder and CIO of Seymour Asset Management, sees the appeal of Marvell's position in the AI infrastructure market, particularly in networking and data centers. He called Marvell's forward guidance strong, but he also said investors still face uncertainty over the appropriate valuation multiple for the stock.
Seymour doesn't own Marvell, and he said he would rather own NVIDIA Corp (NASDAQ: NVDA) at what he considers a more attractive valuation. That's a notable comment, given that NVIDIA is also a big AI winner. It suggests that even among AI stocks, investors are starting to get picky about price.
Marvell Top ETF Exposure
For ETF investors, Marvell's weight in several funds is worth watching. Here are the top ones:
- Invesco PHLX Semiconductor ETF (NASDAQ: SOXQ): 4.53% Weight
- State Street SPDR NYSE Technology ETF (NYSE: XNTK): 5.69% Weight
- First Trust Nasdaq Semiconductor ETF (NASDAQ: FTXL): 6.92% Weight
Significance: Because MRVL carries such a heavy weight in these funds, any significant inflows or outflows for these ETFs will likely force automatic buying or selling of the stock. That's a double-edged sword: it can amplify gains when money flows in, but it can also accelerate losses when investors pull out.
MRVL Price Action: Marvell Technology shares were down 7.58% at $223.14 during premarket trading on Friday.
So what's the takeaway? Marvell is a strong company in a hot sector, with a growth story that's hard to argue with. But the stock's massive run-up means that expectations are sky-high, and any nuance can cause a pullback. The Google clarification is a reminder that not all news is created equal, and that sometimes the market hears what it wants to hear. For now, investors are left to ponder the eternal question: how much is too much to pay for growth?