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If you don't own Nvidia Corp. (NVDA) directly, Wednesday's earnings report could still give your portfolio a jolt. That's because Nvidia is a heavyweight in several semiconductor and tech ETFs, so its outlook on AI infrastructure spending is a big deal for a lot of funds.
Here's a quick look at four ETFs that could be in the spotlight when Nvidia reports.
The VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) is one of the most direct ETF plays on Nvidia and the whole semiconductor ecosystem that's riding the AI wave. If Nvidia's results are strong, it could lift sentiment for other chip stocks in the fund too.
The iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) gives you a broader basket of semiconductor stocks, making it another key vehicle for investors trying to gauge the industry-wide read-through from Nvidia's numbers.
Nvidia's influence isn't just limited to chips. As a major component of the Nasdaq-100, its earnings can move the tech-heavy Invesco QQQ (QQQ) in a meaningful way.
For a wider AI and automation angle, there's the Global X Robotics & Artificial Intelligence ETF (BOTZ), which holds companies positioned to benefit from growing AI adoption across industries.
Nvidia is guiding for fiscal Q2 revenue of $91 billion, plus or minus 2%, compared with the $91.9 billion consensus estimate. That would be roughly 96.5% year-over-year growth. The Data Center business will be under the microscope after Q1 revenue jumped 92% to $75.2 billion. Blackwell remains the company's primary growth engine, with management saying the platform has been adopted by major hyperscalers, cloud providers, and leading AI model developers.
Nvidia has also projected approximately $1 trillion in combined Blackwell and Rubin revenue from 2025 through 2027.
Nvidia is pushing beyond GPUs with its Vera CPU platform, and it estimates the server CPU market at roughly $200 billion. The company expects its CPU business to generate about $20 billion in revenue this year.
China is another potential opportunity. JPMorgan estimates that every 100,000 H200 units shipped to China could generate roughly $3 billion in revenue.
On the flip side, investors will be watching rising memory costs and potential pricing changes. Nvidia is reportedly considering price increases of more than 15% for some systems shipped early next year, which could help offset higher costs and support margins.
With Nvidia's results carrying implications across multiple ETF portfolios, the Aug. 26 report will offer investors a fresh read on the pace and durability of the AI infrastructure boom.
Looking at the charts, Nvidia appears to be in a favorable spot. The stock is trading approximately 2% above its recent average price, according to market data, which indicates that momentum is building and investors are willing to pay a premium for shares. This upward movement could attract further buying interest, particularly if the stock can maintain its position above the $210 mark.
Volume on Tuesday was reported at 55.4 million shares, reflecting robust trading activity. High volume accompanying price increases often signals strong conviction among buyers, which could lead to further upward movement in the near term. If this trend continues, it may indicate that the stock is gaining traction and could potentially challenge its recent highs. This consequently could bode well for ETFs as well.
Looking at the broader technical picture, Nvidia's 52-week range of $164.07 to $236.54 highlights the stock's volatility and potential for significant price swings. The current price is well above the lower end of this range, suggesting that the stock has established a solid base from which it can rally. Resistance may be encountered near the recent high of $214.73, and a breakout above this level could pave the way for a test of the upper boundary of the 52-week range.
The overall market sentiment surrounding Nvidia remains positive, driven by strong fundamentals and a favorable outlook for the semiconductor industry.
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