Nvidia (NVDA) has been on an absolute tear over the past few years, becoming the ninth public company ever to hit a market cap of $1 trillion or more. It's been a regular contender for the title of world's most valuable company, duking it out with Apple (AAPL). But here's the thing: when you look at the last five years, Nvidia isn't even the top stock in the S&P 500. In fact, it's not even in the top three. The crown goes to an HVAC and plumbing company you might not expect.
According to data shared on social media by Charlie Bilello, chief market strategist at Creative Planning, Comfort Systems USA (FIX) takes the top spot for total return over the past five years, with a jaw-dropping +2,274%. Nvidia, meanwhile, ranks fifth with a still-impressive +1,019%. Here's the full top five list Bilello shared:
- Comfort Systems: +2,274%
- Micron Technology (MU): +1,305%
- Seagate Technology (STX): +1,151%
- Lumentum Holdings (LITE): +1,078%
- Nvidia: +1,019%
Now, if you stretch the time horizon out a bit, the picture changes dramatically. Nvidia absolutely dominates the longer-term lists. Over the past 10 years, Nvidia's total return is +14,468%, more than double the second-place finisher. Here's the 10-year top five:
- Nvidia: +14,468%
- Advanced Micro Devices (AMD): +7,543%
- Micron Technology: +6,575%
- Comfort Systems: +6,556%
- Seagate Technology: +4,574%
Go back 15 years, and Nvidia's lead is even more absurd. A +76,248% return over 15 years means if you'd put $1,000 into Nvidia in 2011, you'd have over $763,000 today. That's the kind of return that makes you wonder why you ever bothered with bonds. Here's the 15-year list:
- Nvidia: +76,248%
- Tesla Inc (TSLA): +19,414%
- Broadcom Inc (AVGO): +17,545%
- Micron Technology: +16,026%
- Axon Enterprise (AXON): +15,654%
And over 20 years, Nvidia is still on top, though the gap narrows a bit. A +63,261% return over two decades is nothing to sneeze at. Here's the 20-year top five:
- Nvidia: +63,261%
- Netflix Inc (NFLX): +27,380%
- Monolithic Power Systems (MPWR): +19,745%
- Amazon.com Inc (AMZN): +19,700%
- Comfort Systems: +17,198%
So what should investors take away from all this? First, it's worth noting that Nvidia and Comfort Systems are the only two companies that appear in the top five for both the five-year and 20-year periods. That's a pretty impressive feat for an HVAC company, by the way. But beyond that, the lists look quite different depending on the time frame you're looking at.
Bilello's tweet actually went beyond the top five, and if you dig into the top 20 for each period, you start to see some interesting patterns. Here's a look at the companies that made the top 20 in more than one time period, with their rankings in order for five-year, 10-year, 15-year, and 20-year:
- Nvidia: 5th, 1st, 1st, 1st
- Micron: 2nd, 3rd, 5th, 15th
- Seagate: 3rd, 5th, 7th, 11th
- Lumentum: 4th, 10th, NA, NA
- Comfort Systems: 1st, 4th, 2nd, 5th
- Broadcom: 12th, NA, 4th, NA
- Arista Networks (ANET): 14th, 7th, NA, NA
- Ciena Corporation (CIEN): 15th, 19th, NA, NA
- Quanta Services (PWR): 16th, 11th, 19th, NA
- EMCOR Group (EME): 17th, NA, 20th, NA
- Advanced Micro Devices: NA, 2nd, 12th, NA
- Lam Research Corporation (LRCX): NA, 6th, NA, 12th
- KLA Corporation (KLAC): NA, 8th, 10th, 13th
- Fortinet Inc (FTNT): NA, 12th, 18th, NA
- Tesla: NA, 13th, 3rd, NA
- Axon Enterprises: NA, 15th, 6th, 14th
- Applied Materials (AMAT): NA, 17th, 14th, NA
- Monolithic Power: NA, 18th, 8th, 3rd
- Texas Pacific Land (TPL): NA, 20th, 11th, 9th
- United Rentals (URI): NA, NA, 13th, 17th
What's striking is that only four stocks managed to appear in the top 20 across all four time periods: Nvidia, Micron, Seagate, and Comfort Systems. That's a pretty exclusive club. Twenty stocks made the top 20 in at least two of the time periods, but the vast majority of names on these lists are one-hit wonders, so to speak.
Another interesting tidbit: among the Magnificent Seven, only four made it onto any list at all. Nvidia, Tesla, Amazon, and Apple (which ranked seventh in the 20-year returns) all appeared. But Meta, Microsoft, and Alphabet? Nowhere to be found. That's a reminder that even the biggest, most successful companies don't always deliver the kind of returns that land them on all-time great lists.
So what's the takeaway for investors? Well, the top-performing stocks are constantly changing. Sure, some names like Nvidia and Comfort Systems have shown remarkable staying power, but it's likely that the leaders five years from now will be different from today's leaders. Once a stock has already gained 1,000% or more, it becomes mathematically harder to keep growing at that same exponential pace. That's not to say it can't happen, but the odds are against it.
In the end, these lists are a fun way to look back at what has worked, but they're not necessarily a guide to what will work next. The stock market is a forward-looking machine, and past performance, as they say, is no guarantee of future results. But it's still fascinating to see which companies have managed to defy the odds and deliver life-changing returns over the long haul.
