AI infrastructure companies are in a race to bring new data center capacity online as hyperscalers pour billions into computing power. But with investors increasingly focused on whether ambitious expansion plans can translate into operating capacity on schedule, execution is becoming a key dividing line among AI infrastructure stocks.
That divide is becoming more visible between CoreWeave Inc. (CRWV) and Nebius Group N.V. (NBIS), according to BNP Paribas.
The analyst sees a more favorable near-term risk-reward profile for CoreWeave as its data center partners report encouraging progress, while Nebius faces uncertainty around approvals for its critical Vineland, New Jersey, development.
BNP Paribas maintained an Outperform rating and a $154 price forecast on CoreWeave, implying about 80% upside from its Aug. 6 closing price. The firm kept a Neutral rating and a $238 price forecast on Nebius, implying about 25% upside.
Nebius Faces Vineland Data Center Uncertainty
Analysts highlighted growing uncertainty around Nebius' Vineland, New Jersey, data center, which is expected to support its more than $17 billion contract with Microsoft Corp. (MSFT).
Vineland's Planning Board held a roughly six-hour meeting Wednesday but adjourned without granting the necessary approvals. The hearing is scheduled to continue Aug. 17.
BNP Paribas said a zoning issue raised during the hearing was the "most substantive challenge" and could explain some of the pressure on Nebius shares, which fell 13% Thursday.
The firm estimates Vineland could underpin nearly half of Nebius' 2026 annual recurring revenue outlook. While analysts said approval on Aug. 17 may not materially disrupt the original construction schedule, uncertainty over the zoning issue remains.
BNP Paribas said Nebius could potentially offset delayed Microsoft capacity with higher pricing on new contracts and still reach its $7 billion to $9 billion ARR guidance. However, delays could hurt investor confidence in the company's execution and pressure its premium valuation.
CoreWeave Data Center Buildout Stays On Track
In contrast, BNP Paribas said recent updates from CoreWeave's major data center partners have been encouraging.
Core Scientific Inc. (CORZ) delivered an additional 200 megawatts to CoreWeave ahead of schedule. Applied Digital Corp. (APLD) completed delivery of about 75 MW at Polaris Forge 1, while Galaxy Digital Inc. (GLXY) delivered 133 MW of critical IT capacity at its Helios facility.
BNP Paribas said those updates increase confidence that some CoreWeave capacity could enter service earlier than expected.
An earlier ramp could support stronger profitability in late third quarter and, more importantly, the fourth quarter as additional capacity begins generating revenue.
The contrasting execution signals "continue to skew the risk versus reward toward CoreWeave's favor near term," the analysts said.
Price Action: CoreWeave shares were up 1.35% at $89.38 and Nebius Group shares were up 3.70% at $190.92 at the time of publication on Tuesday, according to market data.
