Cryptocurrency punters aren't betting on a change at the top of Iran's leadership, even as President Donald Trump threatens to hit the nation "very hard."
Polymarket, a prediction market built on Polygon (CRYPTO: POL), currently assigns just a 22% chance that Mojtaba Khamenei is removed, detained, or blocked from acting as Supreme Leader before the end of 2026. That's a steep drop from the 70% odds seen in early March, right after the assassination of his father, former Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
The odds of a change by the end of September are even lower, sitting at just 10%. Over $22 million has been wagered on the outcome, making it one of Polymarket's most actively traded bets.
Mojtaba Khamenei has not made a public appearance since being wounded in a U.S.-Israeli strike, though Iranian state media continues to attribute statements, religious messages, and letters to him.
The developments come as the U.S. resumed hostilities with Iran in response to attempted Iranian attacks on U.S. forces stationed across the Middle East. The escalation followed an attack Tuesday night in which Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps launched multiple ballistic missiles toward U.S. bases in the region.
Trump minced no words, vowing that the U.S. would hit Iran very hard and that "they know it's coming." Earlier this month, the U.S. accused Tehran of violating a memorandum of understanding by attacking commercial vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz. The U.S. has also reimposed a naval blockade against Iranian ports.
So far, the crypto prediction market suggests that despite the escalating conflict, Mojtaba Khamenei's grip on power remains relatively secure—at least in the eyes of bettors.
