Shopify Inc. (Shopify (SHOP)) shares surged on Monday, climbing nearly 9% as investors piled into AI-driven e-commerce optimism ahead of the company's second-quarter earnings report due August 5. The rally stood out against a weak broader market, with the Nasdaq falling 0.84% and the S&P 500 down 0.15%.

Earnings In Focus

Investors are positioning ahead of Shopify's quarterly results after the company guided for second-quarter 2026 revenue of $3.40 billion to $3.46 billion on May 5. Wall Street expects earnings of 37 cents per share, up from 35 cents a year earlier, on revenue of $3.44 billion, compared with $2.68 billion in the year-ago quarter.

CEO's AI Updates Boost Sentiment

Sentiment also got a lift from recent posts by Shopify CEO Tobias Lütke on X. Last week, Lütke showcased the company's new NVIDIA DGX Workstation, calling it a powerful platform for AI workloads. He said the system was generating about 40 tokens per second on the GLM-52 model and was being used to build a new implementation of Shopify's Liquid programming language from scratch overnight. The posts reinforced Shopify's growing focus on AI capabilities as investors look for companies integrating artificial intelligence into core products and operations.

Analyst Consensus & Recent Actions

The stock carries a Buy rating with an average price forecast of $149.05 (high: $180.00; low: $126.00) across 34 analysts. Recent analyst moves include:

• Citigroup: Buy (Lowers forecast to $150.00) (July 24)
• Rothschild & Co: Downgraded to Neutral (Lowers forecast to $130.00) (July 21)
• Jefferies: Upgraded to Buy (Raises forecast to $160.00) (July 13)

Technical Analysis

Shopify is now trading above its 20-day SMA ($120.76), 50-day SMA ($114.06), and 100-day SMA ($117.29), which keeps the near-term trend pointed up and suggests dip-buyers have been defending higher lows since the May swing low. The bigger hurdle is the long-term trend: the stock is still trading 6.8% below its 200-day SMA ($133.83), so this rally is best read as a recovery move inside a longer, still-choppy structure.

• Key Resistance: $131 — a nearby round-number area that can act as a stall point before the 200-day SMA zone comes back into play
• Key Support: $104.50 — a prior buyer-defense area near the lower part of the recent range, closer to the May low backdrop

SHOP Stock Price Activity: Shopify shares were up 8.97% at $123.95 at the time of publication on Monday, according to market data.