If you want to know what traders think will happen in the 2028 elections, you could look at polls. Or you could look at where people are putting their money. On Kalshi, a regulated prediction market, the collective wisdom of bettors is pointing strongly toward a Democratic sweep.
As of Monday, a contract that pays $1 if Democrats win the White House, House, and Senate in 2028 was trading at about 50 cents. That implies a 49% probability—the highest of any single outcome. A Republican sweep contract, by contrast, was near 20 cents, or 20% odds.
The third most likely scenario, at 12%, is a split government where Democrats take the presidency and the House, but Republicans hold the Senate. Other possibilities—like a Republican president with a divided Congress, or a Democratic president facing Republican control of one or both chambers—each trail with single-digit probabilities.
Kalshi works like this: participants buy and sell contracts tied to future events. A “Yes” contract pays $1 if the outcome happens, $0 if it doesn’t. So the price of the contract is essentially the market’s implied probability. It’s not a poll; it’s a real-money bet that reflects how traders are pricing risk as news rolls in.
And some news just rolled in. Last week, a federal appeals court blocked key provisions of President Donald Trump’s executive order aimed at tightening oversight of mail-in voting before the midterms. The lawsuit, brought by Democratic-led states like California, Massachusetts, and Washington, argued the order exceeded presidential authority. The court agreed, keeping an injunction in place.
That kind of legal development can shift the odds on prediction markets, since it affects the rules of the game for future elections. And right now, the game is favoring Democrats in a big way.
Of course, prediction markets aren’t crystal balls. They’re a snapshot of what a bunch of traders think at a given moment, and they can change fast. But when a market gives one party a 49% chance of a clean sweep—more than double the other party’s odds—it’s worth paying attention.
