If you've been following the Clarity Act's journey through Congress, you know it's been a nail-biter. But according to Galaxy Research's Head of Research Alex Thorn, the bill is now in full-on desperation mode. He cut his odds of the bill becoming law in 2026 to 30%, calling it "Hail Mary territory" and warning that the calendar is now the enemy.
Thorn laid out his assessment in Galaxy's weekly research brief on X, comparing the bill's situation to being down 28-3 in the Super Bowl. Ouch.
The combined 616-page text is finally public, but the coalition needed to pass it is not visibly in place. Republicans officially hold 53 seats, but Sen. Josh Hawley (R-Mo.) and Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) are reported likely to have no votes, and Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) has not voted since his June hospitalization. That leaves Republicans with roughly 50 dependable votes before any further defections, well short of the 60 needed to overcome a filibuster.
On the other side, seven negotiating Democrats issued a joint statement saying the current text falls short on ethics, consumer protection, and illicit finance, while Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) called it dead on arrival. Meanwhile, Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) told Punchbowl he does not think the chamber will complete the bill before recess, though he said he would like to at least start the floor process.
"The time for incremental negotiations is over," Thorn wrote. "The bill needs a last-ditch effort, and it needs leadership."
