Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) on Thursday went after President Donald Trump and Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. for slashing the team responsible for tracking cyclospora cases by more than 70%. The attack comes as cryptocurrency bettors on prediction markets see the outbreak getting worse before it gets better.
On Polymarket, a platform built on the Polygon (POL) network, traders currently assign an 89% chance that confirmed cases of the intestinal illness will exceed 5,000 by July 31. That's up from 55% just a week ago. The odds of crossing 10,000 remain low at 15%. Over on Kalshi, a bet prices in a 60% probability that the tally will surpass 16,000 by year's end.
Prediction markets have faced criticism for allowing bets on outcomes involving human suffering, but they've also become a popular way to gauge real-time expectations around events like this.
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has reported 4,173 domestically acquired cases since May 1, with 308 hospitalizations across 41 states. More than 7,400 additional cases are still under investigation, awaiting lab confirmation. For context, the U.S. recorded about 2,700 cyclospora cases last year.
Warren's criticism centers on a decision made last September, when the 11-person team responsible for identifying parasitic outbreaks was reduced to just three people, according to a CNN report. “We should be investing in public health — not gutting it,” the senior Democrat said in a post on X.
The Department of Health and Human Services didn't immediately return a request for comment.
So what exactly is cyclospora? According to the CDC, cyclosporiasis is an intestinal illness caused by the Cyclospora parasite, which spreads through contaminated food or water. The current outbreak has been linked to shredded iceberg lettuce supplied by Taylor Farms in Mexico. A lab test on a lettuce sample initially seemed positive, but officials later said it was a false positive.
Kennedy Jr. said earlier this week that the outbreak is “under control” and denied that staffing cuts weakened surveillance efforts. But with cases already far exceeding last year's total and prediction markets betting on more, the debate over public health funding is likely to intensify.
