President Donald Trump's final two years in office could look very different depending on which party controls the Senate. According to prediction market traders on Kalshi, Republicans now have just a 56% chance of holding onto it.
That number is the centerpiece of Kalshi's new Midterms Hub, an election dashboard launched Wednesday that combines live odds, polling averages, fundraising data, and historical results for every Senate, House, and gubernatorial race. Think of it as a one-stop shop for anyone trying to make sense of the November midterms.
Why the Senate Slide Matters
Republicans started the year with a 67% chance of keeping the Senate, according to Kalshi's market data, and were priced above 80% a year ago. The decline reportedly accelerated after the U.S.-Iran conflict earlier this year. The House looks even worse for the GOP: traders give Democrats roughly an 83% chance of flipping it. If that happens, Trump would face a hostile Congress for the back half of his term.
Traders across Kalshi and rival Polymarket have already put nearly $200 million behind midterm outcomes, according to NBC News.
Betting Money Over Polling
Kalshi is pitching the hub as an antidote to partisan noise, building on its KPOW index, which the company has described as an "S&P 500 for U.S. politics."
"Prediction markets don't care about spin or partisanship," CEO Tarek Mansour said in a statement. "They cut through polarization and show you what the wisdom of the crowds actually believes, backed by real money, not rhetoric."
The company said roughly 75% of visitors check odds without ever placing a trade.
A $40 Billion Question
Kalshi's annualized revenue reportedly passed $2 billion in June, up from roughly $650 million last November. The company is reportedly exploring a raise at a valuation as high as $40 billion, nearly double the $22 billion set by May's Coatue-led Series F. Mansour has reportedly ruled out an IPO this year.
