Nebius Group (Nebius (NBIS)) shares took a beating on Thursday, falling nearly 12% as part of a broader technology sector pullback that hit AI infrastructure companies particularly hard. Nasdaq futures were down 1.07%, and the S&P 500 futures shed 0.44%, reflecting a risk-off mood that has been lingering for a few days.

The immediate trigger? A combination of macro jitters and company-specific worries, including the looming threat of competition from Meta Platforms (Meta (META)).

Meta's Cloud Ambitions Spook the Neocloud Market

Investors have been on edge since reports emerged that Meta plans to monetize its massive AI infrastructure through a program called "Meta Compute." The idea is simple: rent out raw compute capacity to external businesses. That puts Meta in direct competition with specialized AI cloud providers—often called "neoclouds"—like Nebius.

This isn't a new fear. On July 1, Nebius shares plunged 17% after Evercore ISI analyst Mark Mahaney appeared on CNBC and estimated that Meta could generate $10 billion to $20 billion in incremental annual revenue by selling excess AI computing capacity. Mahaney noted that Meta is likely targeting the emerging neocloud market rather than going head-to-head with Amazon's AWS or Microsoft's Azure. That distinction didn't comfort Nebius investors, though.

Thursday's decline suggests the market is still digesting that competitive threat. The neocloud space has been a hotbed of growth, but if Meta—with its deep pockets and existing infrastructure—decides to undercut prices or offer attractive terms, smaller players could feel the squeeze.

Insider Sales and Rising Short Interest

Adding to the negative sentiment, recent SEC filings revealed that Nebius executives have been selling shares. CEO Arkadiy Volozh sold 46,627 shares at $235.45 apiece. Chief Technology Officer Danila Shtan sold 16,940 shares, and Chief Infrastructure Officer Andrey Korolenko sold 33,870 shares, all at the same price. Insider sales aren't always a red flag—they could be for tax planning or diversification—but when combined with a falling stock price, they tend to spook retail investors.

Meanwhile, short interest has been climbing. According to the latest reporting period, short interest rose from 50.93 million to 61.01 million shares, representing 28.55% of the company's publicly available stock. That's a hefty chunk, and it suggests that many traders are betting the stock will fall further. High short interest can also lead to a short squeeze if the stock reverses, but for now, it's adding to the downward pressure.

Technical Picture: Pullback in a Bigger Uptrend

From a chart perspective, Nebius is in a messy spot. The stock is trading 20.6% below its 20-day simple moving average (SMA) of $239.75 and 15.4% below its 50-day SMA of $224.89. That's a clear short-term downtrend. But zoom out, and the picture looks different: NBIS is still 9.8% above its 100-day SMA ($173.27) and 38.7% above its 200-day SMA ($137.20). The moving-average stack—20-day above 50-day, 50-day above 200-day—still leans constructive on a longer lens. Traders often call this a "pullback inside a bigger uptrend."

Key levels to watch: resistance at $224.89 (the 50-day SMA) and support at $173.27 (the 100-day SMA). If the stock breaks below that support, the next stop could be the 200-day SMA around $137. If it holds, the uptrend might resume.

At the time of publication Thursday, Nebius shares were trading at $175.61, down 11.98% on the day.