The U.S. and Iran are currently exchanging strikes. While Iran contends it has complete control over the Strait of Hormuz, the U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) reiterated that it is a vital "maritime corridor" and that "Iran does not control it."

CENTCOM Confirms New Strikes

CENTCOM on Sunday confirmed that the U.S. conducted a "new wave of offensive strikes against Iran," hitting dozens of targets. Iran, on the other hand, conducted strikes at U.S. assets in the region, including military bases in Jordan, Oman, Kuwait and Bahrain.

Here's What the Prediction Market Is Saying

Polymarket, a Polygon (POL) based prediction platform that allows users to wager on an outcome using the USDC (USDC) stablecoin, is currently betting on a contract: "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?"

Over $15.9 million has been bet on the contract so far.

Amid the exchange of fire between the two countries, the odds of normalization of the Strait of Hormuz have plummeted. According to bettors, the probability of the Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by July 31 has decreased to 3%, down by 50%.

The odds are higher at 17% for normalization by August 31.

Iran Asserts Control

Iran had earlier claimed that it had shut down the Strait of Hormuz after a vessel attempted to cross the waterway through an unapproved route.

Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, Iran's Speaker of the Parliament, said that Hormuz was under Iran's command.

Oil Surges

WTI crude oil surged amid the strikes, climbing by over 4.4% to reach $74.55. Brent Crude also surged around 4.3% to reach $79.33.