For months, investors have debated whether agentic AI will replace retailers. JPMorgan thinks that's the wrong question.

Instead, analyst Christopher Horvers argues the first wave of agentic AI could create a very different set of winners and losers.

Retailers and brands that control checkout, fulfillment and customer relationships may strengthen their competitive positions, while grocery retailers face the greatest disruption as AI automates routine shopping.

Why Walmart, Apple And Nike Stand Out

Much of Wall Street's concern has centered on AI assistants like ChatGPT eventually standing between retailers and consumers.

JPMorgan believes that risk has eased. The bank noted that retailers regained control of transactions after OpenAI moved away from its Instant Checkout model. Instead, AI platforms are increasingly acting as "a more potent version of 'googling,'" helping consumers discover products while purchases continue through retailer-controlled checkout.

That shift favors companies already positioned to own more of the shopping journey.

JPMorgan identifies Walmart Inc. (WMT) as "leading the pack" with its Sparky AI assistant and integrations with third-party LLMs for product discovery, basket building and checkout.

Meanwhile, Apple Inc. (AAPL) and Nike, Inc. (NKE) represent brands with established direct-to-consumer businesses that could increasingly steer shoppers to their own channels, allowing them to capture the full retail margin.

Why Grocery Faces The Biggest Risk

Not every retail category stands to benefit.

JPMorgan places grocery at the "top of the risk bucket" because repetitive, low-consideration purchases are well-suited for automated replenishment.

At the same time, AI improves "price discovery," making it easier for consumers to compare products and potentially increasing pricing pressure on grocery retailers.

Categories where browsing is part of the experience—such as beauty, home furnishings and pet products—remain relatively insulated, the bank says.

The Bigger Picture

Perhaps JPMorgan's most contrarian takeaway is that agentic AI isn't replacing retailers—it is reshaping how consumers find them.

Retailers that "invest to win" with major LLMs while building their own AI agents stand to strengthen customer acquisition, improve shopping experiences and preserve ownership of valuable customer data.

For investors, that shifts the debate away from which AI model wins. Instead, the companies best positioned for the agentic AI era may simply be the ones that continue to own the customer after the AI conversation ends.