The S&P 500 extended its winning streak on Monday as technology stocks rebounded and the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed above the 53,000 mark for the first time. But if you ask the crowd on Polymarket, the benchmark index might not keep the party going today.

The S&P 500 gained 0.72% to close at 7,537.43. Yet the July 7 Polymarket contract implies just a 17% probability that the index will open higher on Tuesday. That's a pretty lopsided bet against the bulls.

Why That Number Matters

Monday's gains came despite growing caution around semiconductor stocks, which have powered much of this year's rally. While chipmakers rebounded during the U.S. session, fresh selling pressure returned overnight. South Korea's Kospi plunged more than 7%, and technology shares led declines across Asian and European markets.

Markets will now turn their attention to Tuesday's U.S. trade deficit data for fresh clues on the health of the economy.

The Bear Case

Renewed weakness in semiconductor stocks is weighing on sentiment after the sector powered much of this year's rally. Some strategists also believe the AI trade is entering a more challenging phase, with elevated expectations leaving little room for disappointment.

"Unsurprisingly, when valuations become stretched, investors stop asking whether earnings are good—they ask whether they are good enough to justify the price already paid," said Swissquote Senior Analyst Ipek Ozkardeskaya.

S&P 500 futures slipped 0.25% early Tuesday, adding to the cautious tone.

How The Previous Bet Played Out: The S&P 500 opened Monday at 7,506.96, above Thursday's close of 7,483.24, meaning the July 6 Polymarket bet resolved "Up." The contract recorded approximately $42,701 in traded volume, remaining relatively subdued compared with the elevated activity seen at the start of July.