PayPal Holdings, Inc. (PayPal (PYPL)) was down nearly 3% on Monday, even as investors piled into large-cap tech stocks. The Nasdaq gained 1.55%, and the S&P 500 rose 0.68%, but PayPal's weakness looked like company-specific selling rather than a broader market pullback.
The stock continues to trade below key long-term moving averages, keeping the longer-term trend under pressure and encouraging sellers to emerge during short-term rallies. Over the past year, PayPal has fallen 41.66%, leaving investors waiting for stronger evidence that the company's turnaround is gaining traction before committing fresh capital.
Technical Analysis
PayPal is trading 4.2% above its 20-day simple moving average of $42.65, but it remains 0.7% below its 50-day SMA of $44.75 and 17.2% below its 200-day SMA of $53.66. The moving averages are in a bearish alignment—the 20-day is below the 50-day, and the 50-day is below the 200-day—suggesting the longer-term trend is still negative.
The relative strength index stands at 53.28, neutral territory, indicating neither buyers nor sellers have a decisive advantage. April marked the stock's recent swing high, while June marked its latest swing low. PayPal remains in the lower half of its 52-week range of $38.46 to $79.50, so buyers still need to establish a stronger recovery.
Key resistance sits near $46, close to the 100-day moving average. Initial support is around $43, where the 20-day trend line has recently attracted buyers.
Earnings and Analyst Outlook
The next major catalyst is PayPal's estimated earnings report on July 28. Wall Street expects earnings of $1.28 per share, down from $1.40 a year earlier, while revenue is projected to rise to $8.48 billion from $8.29 billion. The stock trades at about 8.5 times earnings, a lower valuation than many peers.
Analysts maintain a consensus Hold rating with an average price forecast of $49.65. Recent analyst actions include:
- Piper Sandler: Neutral, price forecast lowered to $42 on June 30.
- Canaccord Genuity: Hold, maintained $42 price forecast on May 20.
- Truist Securities: Sell, price forecast lowered to $44 on May 12.
MarketDash Edge Rankings
PayPal carries a Momentum score of 7.68, reflecting continued technical weakness. Its Quality score is 34.09, indicating mixed fundamentals. The Value score of 81.57 suggests the shares trade at an attractive valuation relative to peers, while the Growth score of 45.81 points to moderate growth expectations. Overall, the stock combines strong value characteristics with weak momentum. Investors may look for a sustained move above $46 before viewing the longer-term trend as improving.
ETF Exposure
PayPal is a notable holding in several exchange-traded funds, including:
- First Trust Dow Jones Internet Index Fund (FDN): 3.29% weighting.
- Amplify Transformational Data Sharing ETF (BLOK): 3.20% weighting.
- Amplify Mobile Payments ETF (IPAY): 6.17% weighting.
Large inflows or outflows in these funds can influence demand for PayPal shares.
Price Action
PayPal shares were down 2.56% at $44.30 at the time of publication on Monday, according to market data.
