Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. (Alibaba (BABA)) shares climbed nearly 2% in Monday's premarket session, riding a wave of improving risk appetite that lifted technology stocks across the board. Nasdaq futures were up 1.14%, while S&P 500 futures gained 0.47%.
The move was partly a broader market rebound—tech names that have been hammered in recent months attracted buyers ahead of the opening bell. But investors also had a specific reason to feel better about Alibaba: the company won temporary relief from a U.S. lobbying restriction tied to the Pentagon's Chinese military blacklist.
Alibaba is trading near its June lows after a prolonged decline, making it a candidate for bargain hunting. Whether the rebound has legs will likely depend on the stock's ability to reclaim key technical resistance levels.
A Temporary Win in Court
According to Bloomberg, a federal judge temporarily blocked the Pentagon from enforcing a new lobbying restriction against Alibaba while the court reviews the company's constitutional challenge to its designation as a Chinese military company.
U.S. District Judge Eumi K. Lee ordered the Defense Department not to treat Alibaba as a blacklisted military-linked company for purposes of the lobbying ban until she rules on the company's request for relief or 60 days after a court hearing.
The restriction, which took effect last week, bars the Defense Department from working with companies represented by lobbyists who also represent firms on the Pentagon's Section 1260H blacklist. Alibaba argued the measure violated its free speech rights and caused all of its registered lobbyists to withdraw.
“We are pleased that, for purposes of the lobbyist-contracting ban, Alibaba will not be treated as a Chinese military company and will have proper channels to communicate our views and address concerns,” an Alibaba spokesperson said.
Bloomberg reported that the Pentagon added Alibaba to its Section 1260H blacklist on June 8. The company sued the Defense Department on June 23 seeking removal from the list and requested relief from the lobbying restrictions on June 30. The Pentagon said it believes the law complies with the U.S. Constitution but agreed to a temporary pause while the court considers the case.
Technical Picture: Still Ugly, But Maybe Less So
Alibaba remains in a longer-term downtrend. The stock trades about 9% below its 20-day simple moving average of $107.43 and 33.5% below its 200-day simple moving average of $147.08.
The 20-day moving average remains below the 50-day moving average. A death cross formed in April when the 50-day moving average fell below the 200-day moving average, signaling continued long-term weakness.
Momentum indicators suggest selling may have become stretched. The relative strength index stands at 23.38, a level generally considered oversold. While such readings can precede short-term rebounds, they don't necessarily signal a change in the broader trend.
The stock is also trading not far above its 52-week low of $91.99. Traders may look for signs of a base forming before expecting a sustained recovery.
Key resistance is near $107.43, which aligns with the 20-day moving average. Initial support remains around the 52-week low of $91.99.
Earnings and Analyst Outlook
Alibaba is expected to report quarterly results on Aug. 28, 2026.
Wall Street expects earnings of $2.51 per share, up from $2.06 a year earlier. Revenue is projected to increase to $38.72 billion from $34.57 billion in the prior-year period.
The stock has a consensus Buy rating with an average analyst price forecast of $192.67. Recent analyst actions include:
- Susquehanna maintained a Positive rating and raised its price forecast to $185 on May 15.
- JPMorgan maintained an Overweight rating and raised its price forecast to $205 on May 14.
- Barclays maintained an Overweight rating and raised its price forecast to $195 on May 14.
Factor Scores: Value and Growth Shine, Momentum Lags
Alibaba scores strongly on value and growth factors but lags on momentum and quality metrics, according to MarketDash data.
The stock has a Value score of 95.59 and a Growth score of 82.79. However, its Momentum score is 7.22 and its Quality score is 10.37, reflecting continued weakness in price performance and underlying quality metrics.
ETF Exposure
Alibaba is a holding in several exchange-traded funds, including:
- Avantis Emerging Markets Equity ETF (AVEM): 1.12% weighting
- Avantis Responsible Emerging Markets Equity ETF (AVSE): 1.39% weighting
- SPDR NYSE Technology ETF (XNTK): 3.53% weighting
Changes in flows into or out of these funds can affect demand for Alibaba shares.
Price Action
Alibaba shares were up 1.84% at $97.91 during premarket trading on Monday, according to market data.
