Adobe Inc. (Adobe (ADBE)) shares climbed on Thursday, lifted by an analyst upgrade and a soft jobs report that shifted expectations for Federal Reserve policy. But don't let the bounce fool you: the stock is still down 34% year-to-date, and the broader trend remains under pressure.
The catalyst for Thursday's move came from two directions. First, HSBC upgraded Adobe from Hold to Buy, raising its price target to $308 per share. That's a vote of confidence for a company that has been caught in the broader selloff of software-as-a-service (SaaS) stocks, as investors worry about artificial intelligence disrupting traditional business models.
Second, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the U.S. economy added only 57,000 jobs in June, far below the 110,000 economists had expected. The bureau also revised down the prior two months by a combined 74,000 jobs. That weak data lowered the probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike at the July 29 meeting to about 20%, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. Rate-sensitive stocks like Adobe tend to benefit when the prospect of higher rates fades.
The broader market is still in the red this year: the Nasdaq is down 1.97% and the S&P 500 has shed 0.52%. But Thursday's macro data gave tech stocks a reprieve.
There's also a notable name in Adobe's corner: Michael Burry, the investor made famous by "The Big Short." In a May blog post, Burry specifically named Adobe, Intuit Inc. (Intuit (INTU)), and Autodesk Inc. (Autodesk (ADSK)) as software firms he views as structural beneficiaries of AI developments. While Burry's recent Substack post highlighted short positions against several semiconductor and tech firms, he sees the software sector as an exception.
From a technical perspective, Adobe is trading 3.1% above its 20-day moving average of $214.10, which is a near-term positive. But the stock remains 6% below its 50-day SMA of $234.94 and 23.5% below its 200-day SMA of $288.68. Those bearish crossovers — the 20-day below the 50-day, and the 50-day below the 200-day — mean any rally is vulnerable to selling into overhead supply. The relative strength index (RSI) sits at 51.21, a neutral reading that doesn't signal overbought or oversold conditions.
Key levels to watch: resistance at $259 and support at $190. At the time of publication, Adobe shares were up 4.12% at $219.67.
