Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. Ltd. (TSM) shares climbed nearly 3% on Thursday, bucking a weaker technology sector as investors continue to bet on the chipmaker's long-term story. The stock's move came as Taiwan's top economic official poured cold water on the idea that the U.S. could ever match TSMC's home-turf production.

Taiwan's Minister of Economic Affairs, Kung Ming-hsin, said Thursday that the United States is unlikely to match TSMC's production capacity in Taiwan, despite the chipmaker's ongoing expansion in Arizona, according to Focus Taiwan. TSMC has already announced plans for 16 fabrication plants and advanced CoWoS packaging facilities in Taiwan, ensuring the island remains the company's primary manufacturing base. "No matter how many fabs the U.S. builds in the future, it won't be that many," he said.

His comments came after President Donald Trump said Taiwan was doubling the size of TSMC's Arizona chip plants and claimed the U.S. could capture 50% of the global chip market before he leaves office. Kung also dismissed concerns that TSMC's U.S. expansion would weaken Taiwan's so-called "silicon shield" — the idea that the island's chip dominance deters Chinese aggression. He added that any future overseas fab plans should be confirmed by the company itself, and expressed confidence that TSMC Chairman C.C. Wei would "handle the matter appropriately."

On the technical side, TSMC remains in a strong long-term uptrend. The stock trades 2.6% above its 20-day simple moving average of $438.55, 7.2% above its 50-day SMA of $419.86, and 30.8% above its 200-day SMA of $344.11. The moving averages are in bullish alignment — the 20-day above the 50-day, and the 50-day above the 200-day — suggesting buyers keep stepping in on pullbacks. The relative strength index sits at 54.99, indicating neutral momentum with room to run before hitting overbought territory. A sustained move above $450 could set up another test of the June high. Key resistance is at $450, with support near $405.50, close to the rising 50-day moving average.

TSMC is scheduled to report second-quarter earnings on July 16. Wall Street expects earnings of $3.77 per share, up from $2.47 a year earlier, with revenue projected to rise to $39.76 billion from $30.07 billion. The stock trades at 38.6 times earnings — a premium valuation, but one analysts seem comfortable with. The consensus rating is Buy, with an average price target of $489.17. Recent analyst moves include Bank of America raising its target to $590 on June 24, Susquehanna bumping its target to $575 on June 22, and Barclays maintaining an Overweight rating while lifting its target to $470 on April 22.

MarketDash Edge assigns TSMC a Momentum score of 91.4, a Quality score of 97.73, and a Growth score of 92.58, while its Value score is just 21.48 — reflecting the premium valuation. The scores suggest the stock continues to benefit from strong momentum, high-quality fundamentals, and solid growth expectations, though the high valuation leaves less room for disappointment.

TSMC is also a major holding in several exchange-traded funds, including the Harbor International Compounders ETF (OSEA), the Pacific NoS Global EM Equity Active ETF (GEME), and the Nicholas Crypto Income ETF (BLOX). Large inflows or outflows in those funds can influence demand for TSMC shares.

At the time of publication Thursday, TSMC shares were up 2.61% at $455.81.