Nebius Group N.V. (NBIS) shares are up about 1% in Thursday's premarket session, a small recovery after the stock got absolutely hammered on Wednesday — down 17% in a single day. The trigger? Reports that Meta Platforms Inc. (META) is looking into expanding its own AI computing services, which would put the tech giant in direct competition with the very companies that rent its GPUs.
For Nebius, this is personal. The company has a multi-year capacity agreement with Meta valued at up to $27 billion. So when Meta starts talking about building out its own cloud business, investors naturally wonder: will Meta eventually stop being a customer and start being a rival? That's a scary thought for a company that counts Meta as one of its biggest clients.
The report also revived broader concerns about the moat of independent GPU cloud providers. If cash-rich hyperscalers like Meta decide to get into the specialized AI computing game, they could squeeze margins and steal market share from smaller players. That fear didn't just hit Nebius — CoreWeave Inc. (CRWV) fell nearly 14% on Wednesday as investors reassessed the outlook for the whole neocloud sector.
Technical Analysis: Consolidation or Reversal?
Despite the ugly Wednesday, Nebius is still sitting on a staggering 358.64% gain over the past 12 months. So the recent pullback looks more like a pause than a trend change — at least for now.
The stock is trading about 5.9% below its 20-day simple moving average of $250.91, but it's still 10.3% above the 50-day SMA of $213.91. That's a classic consolidation pattern: the stock rallied hard, took a breather, and is now trying to figure out its next move. The 20-day SMA is above the 50-day, and the 50-day is well above the 200-day SMA of $132.31 — so the long-term trend is still constructive.
The relative strength index is at 46.36, which is neutral territory. Neither buyers nor sellers have a clear edge right now. Traders are watching $279 as the next resistance level, with support near $200.50 (close to the 50-day moving average).
Earnings and Analyst Outlook
Nebius is expected to report earnings on August 6, 2026. Wall Street is looking for a loss of 73 cents per share, wider than the 38-cent loss a year ago. But revenue is projected to jump to $578.39 million from $105.1 million — a sign that the business is scaling fast, even if profitability isn't there yet.
The stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 88.5, which is expensive by any measure. That premium valuation means the stock is more sensitive to negative headlines — which is exactly what happened on Wednesday.
Analysts are still bullish overall, with a consensus Buy rating and an average price target of $213.89. Recent analyst moves include Bank of America Securities raising its price target to $280 on June 8, BNP Paribas initiating coverage with a Neutral rating and $255 target on June 2, and DA Davidson maintaining a Neutral rating with a $250 target on May 18.
Momentum vs. Value
MarketDash's own rankings give Nebius a Momentum Score of 98.79 — meaning it's been one of the best-performing stocks relative to its peers over the past year. But its Value Score is just 3.77, confirming that the shares are pricey. That combination points to strong investor confidence in the growth story, but also leaves the stock vulnerable when bad news hits.
Price Action
Nebius shares were up 1.06% at $231.60 in premarket trading on Thursday, according to market data. The bounce is modest, but it suggests that some buyers see Wednesday's selloff as overdone — at least for now.
