President Donald Trump signed Executive Order 14160 in January 2025 aiming to end birthright citizenship, part of the Birthright Citizenship Act. The U.S. Supreme Court is expected to rule on the matter this week.
The order has faced legal hurdles, including an October federal appeals court decision that found it inconsistent with the Constitution and blocked it. The 1st U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals also expressed skepticism, with a three-judge panel indicating the order appeared unconstitutional.
What Prediction Markets Say
Data from Kalshi, a federally authorized betting platform, shows over $1.5 million has been wagered on the contract "Will Trump's birthright citizenship order come into effect?" Bettors place only a 7.4% probability the order takes effect before August 2026.
Disclaimer: Kalshi and MarketDash have an existing data collaboration agreement.
Trump Faces Supreme Court Setback
Trump faced another setback Monday when the Supreme Court rejected his attempt to fire Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook from the Fed's Board of Governors. The dispute stems from Trump's August 2025 attempt to remove Cook. According to the court, Trump had not followed the procedures required under federal law.
Trump's Supreme Court Victory
While Trump lost on Cook, he also secured a win. The Supreme Court ruled 6-3 that presidents have broader authority to remove members of independent federal agencies.
Disclaimer: This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by MarketDash editors.
