Former National Security Adviser John Bolton thinks President Donald Trump is making a classic negotiating mistake: telegraphing his top priority. And in this case, that priority isn't strategic dominance in the Gulf—it's the price of gas.

"For several weeks, Trump's focus has been not the strategic issues at hand in the Gulf, but the price of gasoline at the pump," Bolton wrote on X Monday. "It's a legitimate political concern, but it also opens him up to vulnerabilities when negotiating with the Iranians."

Bolton, who served as national security adviser during Trump's first term, elaborated in an interview with Global News. He said Trump's main goal is to get the Strait of Hormuz reopened, push oil back into global markets, and bring U.S. gasoline prices down. That goal, Bolton argued, is "so evident, so transparent" that Iran has been "doubling down" in negotiations, sensing they can extract more concessions.

Bolton described Trump as being "in a trap of his own making," caught between wanting to declare "the best deal ever negotiated in history" and making concessions that could hurt him politically at home. It's a delicate balancing act, and Bolton thinks the president's visible impatience is undermining his leverage.

Pump Prices Remain Well Above Prewar Levels

The numbers explain Trump's urgency. According to AAA, regular gas averaged $2.98 a gallon just before the U.S. and Israel attacked Iran at the end of February. As of Monday, the national average for regular unleaded stands at $4.065 per gallon. That's a jump of more than a dollar in under four months.

Market analysts say a successful Iran agreement could ease some of the geopolitical risk premium built into crude prices since the conflict escalated. Goldman Sachs estimated in May that a sustained disruption to flows through the Strait of Hormuz could push Brent crude well above $100 per barrel. Conversely, normalizing exports and shipping traffic would likely increase global supply and reduce uncertainty, pushing prices down.

But here's the catch: even if a deal is signed tomorrow, you probably won't see immediate relief at the pump. The U.S. Energy Information Administration notes that crude oil accounts for more than half of the retail price of gasoline, but refining, distribution, and taxes also play significant roles. Supply chains and inventories don't adjust overnight.

Analysts Warn Pump Relief May Take Longer

GasBuddy has forecast that summer gasoline could average $4.80 if disruptions persist. The pain is already changing behavior: only 56% of Americans planned a two-hour-plus summer drive, down from 69% last year.

Analyst Patrick De Haan told CBS News in early June that normalization could take "multi-month to multi-year" work, with prewar prices unlikely before mid-to-late 2027. In a social media thread Sunday, De Haan offered a slightly more optimistic scenario: following a deal with Iran, the national average could fall below $3.75/gallon by the Fourth of July. But he called that an "optimistic timeline" and warned that "hurricane season could be a major wildcard for the rest of summer."

So while Trump may be eager to declare victory and bring down prices, the mechanics of global oil markets don't move at the speed of politics. Bolton's point is that by making his impatience so obvious, Trump may have given Iran the upper hand—and American drivers may have to wait longer than expected for relief.