President Donald Trump has a message for Canada: we don't need you. But the numbers tell a different story—especially when it comes to oil.

During a press briefing on Wednesday, Trump criticized the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), pointing to trade deficits with both neighbors. “We don't need anything that Canada has,” Trump said, adding that the U.S. needs to be treated better by Mexico and Canada.

It's a bold claim. But Patrick De Haan, an analyst at GasBuddy, was quick to fact-check it on X. “Canadian oil makes up ***62%*** of the amount of oil the U.S. imports,” De Haan wrote. He also noted that over 25% of every barrel that goes into U.S. refineries originates from Canada. “How's that for ‘energy independence'? let that sink in,” he added.

So much for not needing anything.

Trump's comments come at a tense moment for North American trade. The USMCA is up for renegotiation, with a deadline of July 1, 2026. U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer has already said that tariffs on Mexico's auto and steel sectors will stay in place even as talks continue. And back in December, Greer hinted that the administration might consider withdrawing from the USMCA entirely this year—though no official move has been announced.

Meanwhile, the Gordie Howe International Bridge—a six-lane span connecting Ontario and Michigan—is set to open this Friday. Trump has opposed the project, claiming Canada has treated the U.S. “very unfairly for decades.” But the bridge is opening anyway, a concrete symbol of cross-border ties that aren't going away.

Trump's rhetoric may play well politically, but the reality is that the U.S. economy is deeply intertwined with Canada's—especially when it comes to keeping the lights on and cars running. Canada isn't just a trading partner; it's a critical supplier of the oil that powers American refineries. Dismissing that relationship might make for a good soundbite, but it doesn't change the pipeline of crude flowing south.