If you thought Tesla was just a car company, think again. A new report from Counterpoint Research argues that the company's Optimus humanoid robot could become a massive revenue stream, and Tesla is already laying the groundwork to scale it up fast.
The report, published Wednesday by Counterpoint Associate Director Ethan Qi, highlights how Tesla is using its electric vehicle supply chain, AI chips, and manufacturing know-how to push Optimus into mass production. The company's latest AI5 platform delivers over 2,000 TOPS of computing power and supports a vision-based architecture for the robot. Tesla's Full Self-Driving technology and Grok AI are also helping Optimus understand and navigate complex environments.
According to Counterpoint, Tesla has already built a strong supply chain around Optimus. More than a dozen Chinese companies have been certified as Tier 1 or Tier 2 suppliers for the Optimus V3 model, and many of them have long-standing relationships with Tesla through its EV business. Counterpoint expects Tesla to sign long-term agreements with these suppliers and encourage capacity expansion both in China and overseas.
But scaling isn't cheap. The report estimates that Optimus V3's manufacturing cost will exceed $60,000 per unit in the second half of 2026, when production is still below 10,000 units. The robot's newly designed dexterous hands, which have 22 degrees of freedom, account for nearly 20% of the bill-of-materials cost.
Counterpoint believes Tesla's experience in scaling EV production could help accelerate Optimus manufacturing. The company took years to grow EV deliveries from early production to over 100,000 vehicles annually, but the report says Optimus could hit that milestone much faster. If successful, the humanoid robot business could generate billions of dollars in incremental revenue for Tesla's supply chain partners and become a significant long-term growth driver for the company.
As for Tesla's stock, it's taking a hit in Wednesday's premarket session. Shares were down 1.36% at $391.29, as risk appetite cools across mega-cap growth names. Nasdaq futures are down 1.11%, and S&P 500 futures have shed 0.75%. The early dip in Tesla lines up with a weaker overnight tone for equities, which often pressures higher-valuation, momentum-driven stocks first.
