California's race for governor is heating up, and if you want to know who's likely to win, just follow the money. On Kalshi, a federally authorized prediction market, bettors have put over $43 million on the line in the contract "California Governor winner?" And the numbers are pretty clear: former Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra (D) is the frontrunner with a 72% probability of winning.
According to projections from Decision Desk HQ on Thursday, Becerra has secured the top spot and will move to the general election in November. The competition for second place is between Steve Hilton (R), a Trump-endorsed Fox News commentator, and billionaire Tom Steyer (D). On Kalshi, Steyer has a 22% chance, while Hilton trails at 7.2%.
Becerra's campaign is riding high on his tenure as California's attorney general and his strong appeal to Latino voters, a crucial demographic in the state. If elected, he would be California's first Latino governor since José Antonio Romualdo Pacheco back in 1875. His momentum got a boost after Eric Swalwell (D-Calif.) dropped out of the race amid allegations, pushing Becerra into frontrunner status, according to Emerson College Polling/Inside California Politics.
One of Becerra's key promises is to overhaul the state's troubled high-speed rail project. In a recent speech in Fresno, he said he wants to "scrap the current configuration" of the rail plan, which he argues has failed on budget and timeline. He vowed to complete the project efficiently, stressing the need for high-speed rail in California. The current project, backed by Governor Gavin Newsom, aims to connect Los Angeles and San Francisco but faces financial hurdles—463 miles of the 494-mile project are ready for construction, but more funds are needed to finish the job.
With the general election still months away, the prediction market is giving Becerra a solid lead. But in politics, as in betting, things can change fast.
