If you're counting on Social Security to fund your retirement, here's a number that might make you wince: $500 a month. That's the average cut beneficiaries could see by 2032 if the program's trust fund runs dry and Congress hasn't stepped in, according to a new analysis from the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (CRFB).
The fiscal policy think tank crunched the numbers and found that a 24% across-the-board reduction would be necessary to keep paying benefits after the retirement trust fund is exhausted. Social Security would still collect payroll taxes, but without enough reserves, the law says it can't pay full scheduled benefits. The result? A monthly hit that ranges from $459 to $556 depending on where you live.
"Applying this projected reduction to current state-level data, we estimate an across-the-board monthly cut would range from $459 to $556 across the 50 states and the District of Columbia," the report said. The national average lands at $500.
Connecticut residents would feel the sting the most, with an average cut of $556 per month. New Jersey ($554), New Hampshire ($553), Delaware ($549), and Maryland ($541) round out the top five. Washington, Minnesota, Massachusetts, Michigan, and Utah also make the top ten, with cuts all above $520.
"No state would be spared from the potentially devastating effects of insolvency," CRFB said.
The report also highlights which states have the most to lose in terms of population share. In 47 states, more than 15% of residents would see their benefits slashed. Maine leads the pack at 22.9%, followed by West Virginia (22.4%), Vermont (22.0%), Delaware (21.1%), and Montana and New Hampshire (both 21.0%). South Carolina, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania also have high exposure, with shares ranging from 19.8% to 20.6%.
MarketDash reached out to the Social Security Administration for additional comment but did not immediately receive a reply.
Advocates are sounding the alarm. Shannon Benton, a spokesperson for the Senior Citizens League, told Nexstar in an email that such a cut is "unacceptable" and urged lawmakers to move quickly. Benton said any solvency debate must recognize that millions of older Americans rely on earned benefits for housing, food, health care, and other basic expenses. Acting sooner, she said, would help restore long-term solvency while avoiding sudden reductions that many beneficiaries cannot afford.
The Social Security Administration says about 75 million Americans receive Social Security or Supplemental Security Income benefits. Nearly 71 million Social Security beneficiaries got a 2.8% cost-of-living increase for 2026, while about 7.5 million SSI recipients also saw higher payments. But without congressional action, those increases could be wiped out—and then some—by 2032.
The clock is ticking. The longer Congress waits, the bigger the potential shock for retirees who have paid into the system their whole working lives.
