If you've been watching the housing space lately, you've probably noticed a flurry of big-name acquisitions. Rocket Companies (Rocket Companies (RKT)) buying Redfin. Berkshire Hathaway scooping up Taylor Morrison Home Corp. (Taylor Morrison (TMHC)) for $8.5 billion. It might look like the housing market is roaring back. But according to Logan Mohtashami, lead analyst at HousingWire, that's not quite right.

Speaking on CNBC's Closing Bell Overtime on Tuesday, Mohtashami argued that the recent wave of consolidation isn't a signal of an imminent housing recovery. Instead, it's a long-term bet on the sector's future growth cycle—one that could take five to ten years to fully play out.

"I think every part of real estate and mortgage is in play," Mohtashami said, adding that he expects even more consolidation ahead. He pointed to deals across homebuilders, real estate services, and mortgage companies, including Rocket's acquisition of Redfin and the purchase of housing data company Zonda. These transactions, he said, are positioning companies for the next housing cycle, not reflecting short-term market strength.

So what's the actual state of the housing market? Not great, according to Mohtashami. New-home sales are still roughly in line with 2019 levels, while existing-home sales—the more important indicator, in his view—continue to operate near historically weak levels. The sluggishness is real.

Affordability Improves, But Slowly

There is some good news on the affordability front. Mohtashami noted that mortgage rates rising above 6.75% appear less likely now, even with elevated inflation. Improving mortgage spreads have helped keep rates below 7%, providing some support for demand. Inventory levels have improved significantly, and the severe housing shortage seen in recent years has largely faded. Home-price growth is slowing, wages are growing faster than home prices, and affordability is gradually improving. Lower mortgage rates could provide a modest boost to sales, he said.

But the data still tells a cautious story. The U.S. Census Bureau reported that new-home sales fell 6.2% in April as elevated mortgage rates and affordability challenges continued to weigh on buyers. Corporate commentary echoes that: Home Depot (Home Depot (HD)) executives recently said homeowners are delaying larger renovation projects because of affordability concerns and a sluggish housing market.

Meanwhile, Zillow Group (Zillow (Z)) CEO Jeremy Wacksman recently said affordability continues to keep many potential buyers on the sidelines. Anthony Scaramucci has argued that many households can no longer comfortably afford the median-priced U.S. home.

Mohtashami's comments come amid a rising tide of consolidation. Earlier this week, Berkshire Hathaway agreed to acquire Taylor Morrison Home Corp. in an approximately $8.5 billion all-cash deal, one of the largest housing-sector transactions this year. The message from the analyst is clear: don't mistake M&A for a recovery. It's a bet on the future, and there's likely more to come.