The S&P 500 extended its record-setting run on Monday, powered by technology stocks and fresh enthusiasm around artificial intelligence, but Polymarket traders are leaning toward a lower open on Tuesday.

The S&P 500 closed up 0.26% at a record 7,599.96 on the first day of the month. The June 2 Polymarket contract implied a 48% probability that the index will open higher on Tuesday.

Why That Number Matters

The S&P 500 has now logged nine consecutive weekly gains and continues to push deeper into record territory, supported by strong momentum in artificial intelligence-linked stocks.

However, investors are also watching developments in the Middle East after Iranian state media reported that Tehran would halt communications with the U.S. through intermediaries and move toward fully blocking the Strait of Hormuz.

Oil prices climbed sharply on Monday, with West Texas Intermediate crude rising 5.93% and Brent crude gaining 4.24%, raising fresh concerns about inflation and energy costs.

Markets will also get a fresh reading on the labor market Tuesday with the release of April JOLTS job openings data.

The Bull Countercase

Technology remains the market's dominant driver, with Nvidia (NVDA) leading gains after unveiling a new processor for personal computers.

Nvidia shares rose more than 6%, while IBM, Dell Technologies (DELL) and HP (HPQ) gained more than 7%, 10% and 8%, respectively, helping push the S&P 500 and Nasdaq to new records.

Dollar General (DG) and Victoria's Secret (VSCO) are due to report earnings before Tuesday's opening bell.

Still, futures pointed lower Tuesday morning as traders weighed renewed geopolitical uncertainty and rising oil prices. S&P 500 futures were lower early Tuesday, falling 0.07%.

How The Previous Bet Played Out: The S&P 500 opened Monday at 7,582.29, above Friday's close of 7,580.06, meaning the June 1 Polymarket bet resolved "Up." The contract recorded approximately $126,420 in traded volume before settling.