Walt Disney Co (Disney (DIS)) kicked off 2026 with big plans for the box office, including its first theatrical Star Wars film since 2019. That film, "The Mandalorian and Grogu," just hit theaters over Memorial Day weekend — and it's setting franchise records, just not the kind Disney shareholders were hoping for.

The film opened with $98 million in North America over the four-day holiday weekend, according to The Hollywood Reporter. Disney's own estimates put the number closer to $100 million. Either way, it's the lowest opening for any Star Wars film since Disney bought Lucasfilm in 2012, even below 2018's "Solo: A Star Wars Story," which opened to $103 million over the same holiday weekend.

But before you write off the little green guy and his dad, let's look at the full picture. There's good news and bad news here.

The good news: this was only the first weekend. The film has a chance to build momentum in the coming weeks. Its $63 million three-day international total is on par with "Solo." And here's the key number: the four-day global gross of $167 million already exceeds the film's $165 million production budget (before marketing). Compare that to "Solo," which had a $265 million production budget and ultimately grossed $393 million worldwide — a loss after marketing costs. "The Mandalorian and Grogu" is starting from a much healthier place.

The bad news: the opening weekend is a steep drop from other Disney-era Star Wars films. Here's how the franchise has performed since Disney took over:

• "Star Wars: Episode VII – The Force Awakens" (2015): $936.7 million domestic, $2.02 billion worldwide
• "Rogue One: A Star Wars Story" (2016): $532.2 million domestic, $1.06 billion worldwide
• "Star Wars: Episode VIII – The Last Jedi" (2017): $620.2 million domestic, $1.33 billion worldwide
• "Solo: A Star Wars Story" (2018): $213.8 million domestic, $392.9 million worldwide
• "Star Wars: Episode IX – The Rise of Skywalker" (2019): $515.2 million domestic, $1.07 billion worldwide

Whether "The Mandalorian and Grogu" picks up steam or fizzles, Disney stands to benefit across its broader ecosystem. The film could boost consumer product sales, theme park attendance, and future streaming revenue when it lands on Disney+. And looking ahead, Disney has a stacked lineup for the rest of 2026: "Toy Story 5" on June 19, a live-action "Moana" on July 10, and "Avengers: Doomsday" on Dec. 18. Those films could easily outperform the latest Star Wars entry and give shareholders plenty to cheer about.

As for movie theaters, they're not complaining. AMC Entertainment Holdings (AMC (AMC)) said it hosted more than five million moviegoers over the holiday weekend — its biggest Thursday-through-Monday attendance in the U.S. so far this year. The Star Wars film is the fifth movie in the last two months to open above $75 million domestically. And AMC's movie-themed merchandise program? The Mandalorian and Grogu popcorn buckets drove the third-best such program in the chain's history.

So maybe the Force isn't fully asleep — it's just taking a slightly different path.