NVIDIA Corp. (NVIDIA (NVDA)) just reported another quarter that made Wall Street nod approvingly — a classic beat-and-raise that checked all the boxes. But the stock barely budged, and even dipped after the news. So what gives?
According to analysts from Wolfe Research, UBS, and Bernstein, the answer is simple: NVIDIA's dominance in AI infrastructure is so well-established that investors have already priced in a lot of the good news. But that doesn't mean the story is over. In fact, they argue, the company's position is stronger than ever.
Wolfe Research: NVIDIA Is 'At the Center of All AI'
Chris Caso, senior analyst at Wolfe Research, told CNBC on Thursday that NVIDIA delivered another strong quarter, with earnings and guidance beating both company forecasts and Wall Street expectations. He acknowledged that investors are still worried about hyperscalers building their own chips, but he pointed to new customers like Anthropic as evidence that NVIDIA continues to gain traction in the hyperscale market.
Caso noted that roughly half of NVIDIA's business now comes from hyperscalers, while the rest comes from sovereign AI projects, enterprises, and other customers that rely on NVIDIA's full hardware-and-software platform rather than developing custom chips internally. He believes NVIDIA's long-term advantage will depend on maintaining performance leadership in AI inference workloads, where he says NVIDIA currently offers lower costs than competitors.
On margins, Caso acknowledged that rising memory prices could pressure them over time, but he said revenue growth remains strong enough to support continued earnings expansion. He added that NVIDIA remains his top AI stock pick because of its central role in the broader AI infrastructure buildout and its attractive valuation relative to growth.
"The reason for that is part the valuation, the fact that it has lagged, and the fact that it is at the center of all AI," Caso said. "We think the valuation, given the growth rate and the prospects ahead of them, is just unreasonable at this point when it's trading at a discount to most everything else within AI."
UBS: NVIDIA Still Anchors the AI Trade
Alli McCartney, Managing Director at UBS Alignment Partners, told CNBC on Thursday that NVIDIA's earnings reinforced the strength of the broader AI infrastructure boom, even as the stock pulled back following results. She said NVIDIA's quarter largely matched expectations for strong growth and continued AI momentum, and she noted that earnings growth has remained solid across much of the market, not just among hyperscalers and AI-focused companies.
McCartney described NVIDIA as the "behemoth" at the center of the AI trade, citing its rapid revenue growth, expanding buybacks and dividend strategy, and influence across semiconductors, infrastructure, energy, and agentic AI. She argued that long-term secular AI trends continue to support demand for chips, computing infrastructure, and energy capacity despite ongoing investor concerns about inflation, interest rates, and economic growth.
According to McCartney, NVIDIA's post-earnings decline reflected the optimism investors had already priced into semiconductor stocks after a strong rally, rather than any deterioration in NVIDIA's fundamentals. In other words, the stock's reaction was more about expectations than reality.
Bernstein: Raising the Target on a 'Really Great' Quarter
Stacy Rasgon, analyst at Bernstein, told CNBC on Friday that he has raised his NVIDIA price forecast to $315 from $300 after the company delivered what he described as another "really great" quarter. Rasgon highlighted NVIDIA's expanding CPU opportunity, noting the company expects roughly $20 billion in CPU revenue this year, with most of that contribution arriving in the second half.
He argued that investors may be underestimating NVIDIA's importance to the broader AI ecosystem as attention shifts toward newer AI-related themes. According to Rasgon, many AI investment areas — including memory, semiconductor equipment, and AI infrastructure — still depend heavily on NVIDIA maintaining leadership in compute performance and AI systems.
Rasgon also said NVIDIA's valuation remains compelling relative to its growth trajectory, particularly given the company's continued dominance in AI infrastructure. He pointed to NVIDIA's expanded buyback authorization and higher dividend as signs of strong cash generation, noting the company could produce roughly $100 billion in free cash flow this year while continuing to invest heavily in supply chains, software, and strategic AI initiatives.
On China, Rasgon said investors should avoid relying on the region as a major near-term growth driver because of ongoing export restrictions. Still, he added that any improvement in China-related policy could create upside for NVIDIA rather than downside.
NVDA Price Action: NVIDIA shares were up 0.12% at $219.78 during premarket trading on Friday.