Gold has given back most of its 2026 gains, but it's still one of the most hotly debated assets out there. Veteran strategist Jeffrey Currie, formerly Goldman Sachs' head of commodity research, thinks things will get worse before they get dramatically better. He sees gold tumbling to $4,000 an ounce before eventually rocketing to $10,000.
Currie, who calls himself a "gold perma bull," admitted on X that he's been "short gold" since March. As volatility spiked and gold slid below $4,500 amid war-related inflation fears, heavy selling pressure kicked in.
Forced Selling Pressure
Currie argues that gold's near-term weakness is tied to the fallout from the Middle East conflict and disruption of the Strait of Hormuz. Surging energy prices are forcing some central banks to liquidate gold reserves to defend their currencies and pay for energy imports.
"When the marginal central bank flips from structural buyer to forced seller to pay for energy, gold's biggest bid disappears," Currie wrote.
Turkey is a prime example. According to Currie, the Turkish central bank sold roughly 120 tons of gold to defend the lira and cover soaring energy costs. That selling pressure is why he believes gold could retrace all the way toward $4,000.
Still, Currie doesn't expect a total collapse. He suggested a $3,750-$4,000 range would likely attract major sovereign buyers, particularly China, limiting further downside. "China would probably step in," he noted.
However, once the energy shock starts damaging global growth, Currie expects central banks to pivot back toward easier monetary policy. "Once central banks turn dovish after the energy crisis hits growth, the trade resets and I'm back long," he said. That shift, in his view, sets the stage for gold's eventual march toward $10,000.
Most Asymmetric Trade in History
Currie's gold call is part of a much larger commodity supercycle thesis. He argues investors have poured capital into artificial intelligence while neglecting the physical infrastructure needed to power it.
"Capital has chased the AI trade while ignoring the physical assets AI requires to run," he noted, adding that those hard assets "have quietly become the best-performing asset class of the decade."
The imbalance is striking. Information Technology and Communications now make up roughly 43% of the S&P 500, while Energy and Materials account for only about 6%. Meanwhile, the Magnificent 7 plus Oracle are projected to spend roughly $820 billion on capex in 2026 alone.
For Currie, that spending is "the largest physical commodity bid ever assembled inside eight income statements." He believes tech giants have effectively become "the largest unhedged molecule short ever underwritten by an equity market."
At the same time, commodity supply remains deeply constrained. Upstream oil and gas investment has fallen 35% from 2015 highs, while the world's top 20 miners are spending 40% less than during the 2012 peak cycle.
Currie says the market is shifting from the old "HAGO" era — Hard Assets, Global Operations — into a new "HALO" regime: Hard Assets, Local Operations.
"The price will overshoot first. The capex will follow," Currie wrote. "Then the new supply."
Price Watch: SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) is up 3.32% year-to-date.
