ConocoPhillips (COP) shares ticked up Monday after the company locked in a long-term natural gas supply deal that could finally breathe life into the long-discussed Alaska LNG project. The stock was up 1.49% at $124.24 by publication time.
The company signed a 30-year gas sales precedent agreement with Glenfarne Group's Alaska LNG subsidiary. Under the deal, ConocoPhillips will supply natural gas from Alaska's North Slope for Phase One of the project. That's enough committed volume to support a final investment decision for the first phase and meet the state's projected energy needs.
Phase One involves building a 739-mile pipeline to shore up Alaska's energy security as production from the Cook Inlet basin declines. Phase Two would add LNG export facilities in Nikiski, opening up global markets. With ConocoPhillips on board, Alaska LNG now has supply commitments from every major North Slope producer: Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM), Hilcorp Alaska, and Great Bear Pantheon LLC (a subsidiary of Pantheon Resources).
Glenfarne owns 75% of the project, while the State of Alaska holds the remaining 25% through the Alaska Gasline Development Corporation.
Quarterly Earnings Topped Wall Street Estimates
Last month, ConocoPhillips reported first-quarter earnings of $2.2 billion, or $1.78 per share, compared with $2.8 billion, or $2.23 per share, a year earlier. Adjusted earnings came in at $1.89 per share, beating analysts' estimates of $1.64 per share. Revenue hit $16.05 billion, above the $15.55 billion consensus.
The company said it expects second-quarter production between 2.185 million and 2.215 million barrels of oil equivalent per day and reaffirmed full-year production guidance of 2.295 million to 2.325 million BOE per day. ConocoPhillips also plans to add one rig in the Permian Basin during the second half of 2026.
Cost Savings and Operational Outlook Remain in Focus
Management noted that the impact from the Middle East conflict was largely limited to QatarEnergy's N3 project, while the rest of its portfolio remained unaffected. The company reiterated its target of achieving a $1 billion run-rate cost savings goal by the end of 2026.
ConocoPhillips expects global oil demand to be broadly flat year over year, with potential downside risk tied to ongoing Middle East tensions. The company also anticipates higher share repurchases in the second quarter.
Analysts Maintain Positive View on ConocoPhillips Stock
The stock carries a Buy rating with an average price forecast of $128.06. Recent analyst moves include:
- Wells Fargo: Overweight (raises forecast to $183.00) on April 9
- Barclays: Overweight (raises forecast to $136.00) on May 1
- Scotiabank: Sector Perform (raises forecast to $125.00) on April 22
How COP Ranks on Value, Growth, and Momentum Versus Peers
Here's a look at ConocoPhillips' scorecard relative to the broader market:
- Value Rank: 76.1 — The stock is considered a strong value relative to its peers.
- Growth Rank: 68 — Indicates moderate growth potential.
- Momentum Rank: 80.63 — Stock is outperforming the broader market.
The Verdict: ConocoPhillips' signal reveals a balanced scorecard with strong momentum and value indicators. This positions the company well for continued growth and stability in the energy sector.
COP ETF Exposure: Top Holdings and Passive Flow Risk
- State Street Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLE): 7.19% Weight
- The Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLE): 7.21% Weight
- Eagle Capital Select Equity ETF (EAGL): 7.36% Weight
Significance: Because COP carries such a heavy weight in these funds, any significant inflows or outflows for these ETFs will likely force automatic buying or selling of the stock.
