President Trump's recent threats against Cuba have a former Defense Secretary worried about a repeat of one of the most chaotic migration events in U.S. history.
Robert Gates, who served as Defense Secretary under both George W. Bush and Barack Obama, told CBS News's Margaret Brennan on "Face the Nation" Sunday that the biggest risk from the current standoff is a mass exodus from Cuba. "I think that, actually, the biggest risk is, that we end up with another Mariel evacuation from Cuba that has tens of thousands of Cubans heading to the United States out of desperation," Gates said.
The Mariel Boatlift of 1980 saw roughly 125,000 Cubans flee to Florida in a chaotic, uncontrolled wave that overwhelmed local resources and sparked a political firestorm. Gates is warning that history could repeat itself if the situation on the island deteriorates further.
He also pointed out that Cuba's influence extends beyond its shores. "Does it matter to U.S. national security what happens on this island?" he asked, before noting that Cuban security personnel have been involved in other countries, including Venezuela, in ways that have "impacted our national security and our interests" for a long time.
Cuba's Drone Threat and the Ghost of 1996
Gates's warning comes as tensions between Washington and Havana hit levels not seen in decades. Over the weekend, Axios reported that Cuba has acquired more than 300 military drones and has discussed potential attacks on the U.S. base at Guantanamo Bay Naval Base, U.S. military vessels, and possibly Key West. The report has rattled the Trump administration, which is also concerned about the presence of Iranian military advisers in Havana.
CIA Director John Ratcliffe reportedly traveled to Cuba to warn officials against hostile actions while urging political reforms that could ease U.S. sanctions.
Meanwhile, the U.S. Justice Department is reportedly considering criminal charges against former Cuban leader Raúl Castro over the 1996 shootdown of two civilian planes operated by the Miami-based exile group Brothers to the Rescue. The attack killed four people, and Castro, who was Cuba's defense minister at the time, is alleged to have played a role in the incident.
Cuba's Energy Crisis Deepens
All of this is unfolding against a backdrop of severe economic strain on the island. Last week, Cuba announced it has completely run out of oil and diesel. Energy Minister Vicente de la O Levy warned that the country's power grid is in a critical state amid severe U.S. sanctions and fuel shortages. The crisis has triggered prolonged blackouts across Havana, with officials blaming the shortage on tightened U.S. restrictions and declining fuel imports from allies like Venezuela.
For the Trump administration, the calculus is tricky: ratcheting up pressure on Cuba could trigger the very migration crisis Gates warns about, while backing down might be seen as weakness. Either way, the situation is one to watch closely.
