As NVIDIA Corp. (NVDA) prepares to report its highly anticipated quarterly results on May 20, the tech giant finds itself navigating a complex geopolitical chessboard.

Despite losing the lion's share of its once-dominant 95% stake in China's data-center GPU market due to U.S. export curbs, experts suggest the company is far from finished in the region.

DGA-Albright Stonebridge Group's Paul Triolo noted on Friday that Nvidia's H200 chips are seeing resilient demand for Chinese industrial AI applications, even as Beijing pours unprecedented resources into a difficult "moonshot" to build a domestic semiconductor supply chain.

With CEO Jensen Huang recently joining a high-profile U.S. delegation to advocate for continued limited trade, and analysts like Jim Cramer warning that total blocks might only accelerate China's self-sufficiency, all eyes are on Nvidia's ability to defend its global leadership.

Paul Triolo Sees China Still Needing NVIDIA's Older AI Chips

Triolo told CNBC on Friday that NVIDIA's H200 chips continue to face strong demand in China despite no longer representing the company's newest AI hardware.

Triolo explained that the H200 chips remain well-suited for AI inference workloads and industrial AI applications, which continue expanding rapidly across China.

He noted that NVIDIA once controlled roughly 95% of China's data-center GPU market but has since lost most of that share due to U.S. export restrictions and China's push toward domestic alternatives.

According to Triolo, Jensen Huang joined Trump's China delegation partly to convince both U.S. and Chinese officials that allowing limited sales of NVIDIA GPUs to China still benefits both sides.

Triolo Says China Is Advancing Domestic Chip Development

Triolo described China's effort to build an independent semiconductor supply chain as one of the most difficult industrial projects ever attempted.

He pointed to Huawei-led initiatives and government-backed programs aimed at developing advanced lithography systems and domestic semiconductor manufacturing tools.

While Triolo said China still faces major technological hurdles — including access to advanced lithography equipment, materials, and supporting infrastructure — he expects the country to make measurable progress within the next two to three years.

However, he cautioned that scaling advanced chip manufacturing across multiple factories and maintaining high-volume operations remains significantly more challenging.

Jim Cramer Argues NVIDIA Sales Help Preserve U.S. AI Leadership

CNBC's Jim Cramer told on Thursday that the U.S. should allow NVIDIA to continue selling AI chips into China because blocking access could accelerate China's domestic chip ambitions.

Cramer argued that forcing Chinese companies to build their own alternatives may eventually help them catch up technologically, especially given China's large engineering workforce and energy resources.

He also highlighted NVIDIA CFO Colette Kress' earlier comments that the company had not yet generated China revenue, despite limited U.S. approvals for some products.

At the same time, Cramer pointed to Jensen Huang's more optimistic remarks in March, when the NVIDIA CEO said the company had received purchase orders and restarted manufacturing tied to China demand.

Despite uncertainty surrounding export controls, Cramer maintained a bullish view on NVIDIA, arguing the company remains central to the global AI boom and still trades at an attractive valuation relative to peers.

Earnings & Analyst Outlook

The countdown is on: Nvidia Corp is set to report earnings on May 20, 2026 (confirmed).

• EPS Estimate: $1.76 (Up from 96 cents YoY)
• Revenue Estimate: $78.93 Billion (Up from $44.06 Billion YoY)
• Valuation: P/E of 48.1x (Indicates premium valuation relative to peers)

Analyst Consensus & Recent Actions: The stock carries a Buy rating with an average price forecast of $284.40. Recent analyst moves include:

• UBS: Buy (Raises Forecast to $275.00) (May 14)
• RBC Capital: Outperform (Maintains Forecast to $250.00) (May 14)
• Cantor Fitzgerald: Overweight (Raises Forecast to $350.00) (May 14)

Technical Analysis

Even with Friday's premarket pullback, Nvidia is still trading well above its key trend gauges: about 9.9% above the 20-day SMA ($209.12) and roughly 23.7% above the 200-day SMA ($185.74).

That spacing typically signals strong trend control by buyers, but it also raises the odds of sharper shakeouts when the market tone turns defensive.

RSI is the cleanest momentum read right now, sitting at 76.93—firmly overbought—and that matters because RSI helps gauge how "stretched" a move is versus its recent pace.

RSI first pushed into overbought territory in May, and the stock has stayed elevated, which often keeps upside intact but makes near-term pullbacks more likely to be fast and headline-sensitive.

Trend structure remains constructive with the 20-day SMA above the 50-day SMA (bullish), and the longer-term golden cross (50-day SMA above the 200-day SMA) that occurred in June 2025 continues to support the bigger uptrend.

From a swing perspective, the chart is still working off a recent swing low from March and a swing high from April, with the 52-week high tagged in May near $236.54.

• Key Support: $194.50 — a nearby level where buyers previously stepped in, sitting close to the broader moving-average "catch zone" (near the 50-day/100-day area) if the pullback deepens

NVDA Stock Price Activity: Nvidia shares were down 2.64% at $229.51 during premarket trading on Friday, according to market data.