Economist and co-founder of Echelon Wealth Partners, Peter Schiff, has never been shy about criticizing U.S. foreign policy. On Thursday, he took aim at the Trump administration's handling of the war with Iran, calling it a disaster in the making.

In a post on X, Schiff laid out his grim prognosis: "Absent a U.S. boots-on-the-ground invasion and occupation, it's clear Iran will win this war." He argued that the conflict has already handed Iran something it never had before — effective control over the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway through which a huge chunk of the world's oil flows. "Iran's influence in the Gulf region will increase following the war," he added.

But Schiff was careful not to be misunderstood. "I'm not advocating for an invasion of Iran," he clarified in the same thread, noting that he opposed the war from the start. "It's becoming increasingly obvious that it was one of the greatest foreign policy blunders in U.S. history."

Schiff's comments come as the conflict continues to escalate. President Trump is currently meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping, and after the first day of talks, Trump said Xi expressed support for U.S. efforts involving Iran. Trump also shared that Beijing had agreed to purchase oil from the U.S. and that Boeing Co. (BA) had received a 200-aircraft order from Chinese companies.

On the other side of the rhetoric, Iran's parliament speaker, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, took a personal swipe at U.S. Secretary of War Pete Hegseth, calling him a "failed TV host."

The war's impact on global shipping is becoming tangible. The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations Center (UKMTO) reported an incident on Thursday: a vessel was taken over by "unauthorized personnel whilst at anchor" near Fujairah, United Arab Emirates, and then headed "bound for Iranian Territorial Waters."

Back home, Americans are feeling the pain at the pump. The national average price for a gallon of gas hit $4.534 on Thursday, according to the American Automobile Association (AAA). Diesel is even worse at $5.667 per gallon. And if you're in California, you're paying over $6.147 per gallon — the highest in the nation.

Oil markets are reflecting the tension. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude was trading at $102.6 per barrel at the time of writing, while Brent crude was at $107 per barrel, up 1.22%. The United States Oil Fund (USO), an ETF that tracks WTI, edged up 0.17% to $143.25 in after-hours trading on Thursday.

Schiff's warning is stark: without a full-scale ground invasion, the U.S. may end up handing Iran a strategic victory it could never have achieved on its own. Whether the administration heeds that warning — or even agrees with the premise — remains to be seen.