A future SpaceX IPO may not behave like a traditional public offering at all. That's the warning from Tessera PE CEO Chan Ahn, the former Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan executive who believes new Nasdaq rules could fundamentally alter how mega-cap IPOs trade from day one.

In an interview with MarketDash, Ahn argued that SpaceX could face conditions more consistent with a "structural squeeze" than normal price discovery if the company debuts publicly under Nasdaq's accelerated index-inclusion framework.

"The old guardrails are gone," Ahn said.

A Tiny Float Meets Massive ETF Demand

Under Nasdaq's updated "fast entry" rules, companies large enough to qualify for the Nasdaq-100 can become eligible for index inclusion after just 15 trading days.

Ahn believes SpaceX would likely qualify immediately.

The problem, according to him, is supply. He estimates SpaceX's tradable float "could be as thin as 5%" once accounting for Elon Musk's ownership stake, insider lockups and restricted shares. At the same time, passive index funds could be forced buyers almost immediately.

"Those aren't the conditions for price discovery," Ahn said. "Those are the conditions for a structural squeeze."

IPO Dynamics May Be Changing

Historically, IPOs followed a relatively predictable sequence: listing, price discovery, earnings reports, lockup expirations and eventually index inclusion.

Ahn argues that process is now collapsing into a single compressed window where euphoria and institutional buying collide simultaneously.

That shift could have major implications not just for SpaceX, but also for future mega-cap AI and infrastructure IPOs entering increasingly passive-driven markets.

Whether investors view that setup as bullish momentum or a distorted market structure may depend entirely on where they sit in the trade.