Cryptocurrency exchange giant Coinbase Global (COIN) could create some volatility for the crypto sector when it reports first-quarter financial results Thursday after market close. The report comes at an awkward moment: the company just announced a round of layoffs, Bitcoin had a wild quarter, and everyone is waiting to see if the "everything exchange" dream is still on track.

Here's what analysts expect, what they're saying, and what to watch when the numbers drop.

Coinbase Q1 Earnings Estimates

Analysts expect Coinbase to report first-quarter revenue of $1.50 billion, down from $2.03 billion in last year's first quarter, according to data from MarketDash. The company has missed analyst estimates for revenue in four of the last six quarters, though it has beaten estimates in six of the last 10 quarters overall.

On the earnings side, analysts expect Coinbase to report 26 cents per share, down from $1.94 per share a year ago. The company has beaten EPS estimates in eight of the past 10 quarters, but it missed in the most recently reported fourth quarter.

What Analysts Are Saying

Coinbase's recent layoff announcement — which will cut about 14% of its global workforce — has been a big topic ahead of earnings. Rosenblatt analyst Chris Brendler said the cuts could reflect "challenging conditions" for the company. He reiterated a Buy rating with a $240 price target, but he's lowering his estimates based on weaker trading activity and pressure on stablecoin revenue.

"We see better days ahead as CLARITY should spur price recovery and add tailwinds not only to the core franchise but also COIN's expanding product suite," Brendler said. He called Coinbase "the best positioned name in crypto" and added, "While near-term results remain under pressure, we believe investors are underestimating the long-term impact of COIN's expanding product ecosystem."

Benchmark analyst Mark Palmer recently cut his price target on Coinbase from $267 to $260, while maintaining a Buy rating. He's also lowering estimates due to the challenging trading environment. "Continued diversification efforts and CLARITY Act progress keep us bullish," Palmer said. He expects subscription and services revenue to show some "resilience" in the quarter, and he views the job cuts as a move toward an "AI-first operating model" rather than just cost-cutting. Palmer also expects Coinbase to be "one of the primary beneficiaries of the CLARITY Act."

Key Items to Watch

Coinbase missed estimates for both revenue and EPS in the fourth quarter, so investors will be looking for a turnaround in Q1. But the layoff news — announced just before earnings — will likely overshadow the results. The company could use the cost savings from the cuts as a positive talking point for guidance.

Transaction revenue fell in the fourth quarter from both the prior year and the prior quarter, while subscription and services revenue was up year-over-year. Coinbase has been working to diversify away from transaction revenue, and it now has 12 products with annualized revenue of $100 million or more. That diversification could help in Q1, and it's part of the company's goal of becoming the "everything exchange" — a concept that got renewed focus in the fourth-quarter shareholder letter.

Another factor to watch is Bitcoin's price action in Q1. Bitcoin (BTC) traded over $90,000 in January before falling to around $69,000 by the end of the quarter. That volatility may have driven more trading activity on Coinbase's platform. Bitcoin has rebounded in Q2, trading above $81,000 at the time of writing, which could be a key topic for guidance and future expectations.

Overall, Coinbase's quarter could be a disappointment, but one that sets up opportunities for the rest of the year — especially if the CLARITY Act passes.

Coinbase Stock Price Action

Coinbase stock was down slightly to $196.25 on Wednesday, within a 52-week range of $139.36 to $444.65. The stock is down 13.5% year-to-date in 2026 and nearly flat over the last 52 weeks.