White House economists have reportedly crunched the numbers on President Trump's drug pricing agreements, and the headline figure is eye-popping: $529 billion in savings for the U.S. economy over the next decade.

The analysis, conducted by administration officials for the White House Council of Economic Advisers, also estimates that federal and state governments could collectively save $64.3 billion on Medicaid over the same period thanks to Trump's "most favored nation" policy on drug prices, according to the Associated Press on Tuesday.

This is the first comprehensive projection of a policy that's central to Trump's appeal to voters in the upcoming midterm elections. The White House analysis further suggests that expanding the framework could save up to $733 billion over a decade as more medications come under the pricing umbrella.

The White House did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

MFN Deals and Tariffs Pressure Drugmakers

The "Most Favored Nation" policy essentially ties U.S. drug prices to those paid by other wealthy countries. To avoid steep tariffs, most major drugmakers have struck deals with the administration.

Companies like Pfizer (PFE), Eli Lilly (LLY), AstraZeneca (AZN), Novo Nordisk (NVO), and Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) have all secured three-year reprieves as part of the agreement. J&J went a step further, pledging a $55 billion U.S. investment that includes two new manufacturing plants.

In early April, the Trump administration was reportedly preparing to announce 100% tariffs on pharmaceutical companies that hadn't signed on. But even those that have signed are feeling the pressure. Vas Narasimhan, CEO of Novartis (NVS) — which also signed the deal — warned that Trump's drug pricing policy could force tough trade-offs for drugmakers and patients, with major impacts expected within the next 18 months and significant long-term consequences.

Drug Pricing Deals Draw Scrutiny

The Trump administration and the Department of Health and Human Services have been touting these drug-pricing deals as major reforms and want Congress to formalize them. But there's a catch: the details of the agreements with 17 major drugmakers remain undisclosed, and that's attracting scrutiny from lawmakers.

Senate Finance Committee Ranking Member Ron Wyden (D-Ore.) has led the charge, pushing for legislation that would require full disclosure of the agreements. The lack of transparency is a red flag for him and others. Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has said some details would be shared, but proprietary information would be kept under wraps.

Meanwhile, Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) has called out Trump over his claims that TrumpRx — launched in February — is lowering drug costs by 600%. She called that claim "mathematically impossible."

So while the White House's $529 billion savings estimate is certainly attention-grabbing, the real story might be in the fine print — or the lack thereof.