Rivian Automotive, Inc. (Rivian (RIVN)) CEO RJ Scaringe told CNBC on Friday that the company is entering a pivotal phase. The EV maker is still in the early stages of ramping production for its R2 model, which will weigh on near-term results, but Scaringe sees the back half of the year as the time when Rivian's underlying economic potential will start to shine.

As production scales, higher volumes will improve fixed-cost absorption and strengthen gross margins across the R1 lineup, R2 vehicles, and commercial vans. Scaringe said the back half of the year should better reflect what the company can really do.

The Georgia Gambit

A key piece of the puzzle is Rivian's Georgia manufacturing facility. The company recently finalized a government loan agreement, and Scaringe said they've increased the planned capacity for the plant's first phase to 300,000 units. Production there is expected to begin in late 2028. Combined with its Illinois facility, Rivian aims to reach more than 500,000 units of total capacity. The company is maintaining its current delivery guidance despite recent operational disruptions.

Who's Buying the R2?

Early interest in the R2 remains strong, and Scaringe noted that it's attracting both existing EV buyers and new customers drawn by its pricing, performance, and design. More customers are trading in internal combustion vehicles—especially less efficient ones—indicating growing awareness of fuel costs and efficiency. Scaringe emphasized that Rivian hasn't seen any meaningful impact from broader macro uncertainties on demand. The R2's pricing places it in the core segment of the U.S. auto market, positioning it for broader adoption.

What the Charts Say

Rivian stock is sitting in the middle of its 52-week range ($11.57 to $22.69), suggesting the market is still debating direction after last year's swings. The stock is trading 1.3% below its 20-day simple moving average (SMA) and 3.7% below its 100-day SMA—a mix that leans to short-term hesitation and a softer intermediate trend, even as it holds some longer-term structure.

The moving-average backdrop is still supportive in spots, with the stock 4.7% above its 200-day SMA, which is often seen as a sign the longer-term base is still intact. But the moving average convergence divergence (MACD) shows the MACD line below the signal line, and the histogram is negative, suggesting upside momentum is currently easing rather than building.

Over the past 12 months, the stock has been up 19.19%, showing the longer-term tape has improved despite choppy stretches. Key turning points, such as the 52-week high in December 2025 and the break below support in February, help explain why $18.00 has become a tougher ceiling for rallies.

• Key Resistance: $18.00 — a level where prior rallies have stalled, and sellers have shown up.
• Key Support: $14.00 — an area where buyers have tended to defend pullbacks.

What the Analysts Think

The stock carries a Buy rating with an average price target of $19.93 (high: $25.00, low: $12.00) across 28 analysts. Recent analyst moves include:

• Benchmark: Buy (Maintains Target to $25.00) (May 1)
• Needham: Buy (Maintains Target to $23.00) (May 1)
• Tigress Financial: Buy (Maintains Target to $25.00) (April 10)

Price Action

Rivian shares were down 2.13% at $16.05 during premarket trading on Friday, according to market data.