Meta Platforms (Meta (META)) just reported a quarter that, on paper, looks like a home run. Revenue topped expectations, earnings blew past estimates, and the family of apps—Facebook, Instagram, WhatsApp—kept printing money. But investors, being the forward-looking bunch they are, focused on one number: $145 billion. That's the new top end of Meta's 2026 capital expenditure guidance, and it sent the stock down nearly 8% on Thursday.

BNP Paribas analyst Nick Jones, who covers Meta, summed it up neatly: the company's latest results highlight strong operating momentum, even as higher capital spending weighs on near-term stock performance. In other words, the business is humming, but the checkbook is on fire.

Strong First-Quarter Performance

Meta's first quarter was a beat on almost every front. The Family of Apps revenue hit $55.9 billion, with advertising alone bringing in $55.0 billion—both above what analysts were expecting. Reality Labs, the division that's essentially Meta's bet on the metaverse, reported $402 million in revenue, which fell short of consensus. But that's a rounding error in the grand scheme of things.

The real headline was earnings: diluted EPS of $10.44, significantly above estimates. Total expenses came in at $33.4 billion, and capital expenditures were $19.8 billion, both below expectations. So Meta managed to spend less than anticipated while still generating massive profits. That's the kind of efficiency investors usually love—unless they're worried about what's coming next.

Guidance And Higher CapEx Outlook

For the second quarter, Meta guided revenue between $58 billion and $61 billion, which is roughly in line with consensus and implies about 25% year-over-year growth. The company noted a modest foreign exchange tailwind, so on a constant-currency basis, growth at the midpoint would be around 23%. Solid, but not jaw-dropping.

The real shocker came in the capital expenditure outlook. Meta kept its full-year expense guidance unchanged at $162 billion to $169 billion, but it raised its 2026 capital expenditure forecast to $125 billion to $145 billion, up from prior guidance. That's a huge jump, and it's all going into AI infrastructure—data centers, chips, and the like. Investors took one look at that number and decided to sell first, ask questions later.

Estimates And Long-Term View

Jones, for his part, isn't panicking. He raised his 2026 forecasts after the stronger-than-expected results and updated guidance, while making only slight revisions to 2027 estimates. His reasoning: Meta still has significant room to improve monetization, which should support continued strong top-line growth and justify the strategic investments. He maintained an Outperform rating and a $955 price target, based on a 27x multiple on his 2027 estimated diluted EPS of $35.34.

That $955 target implies about 55% upside from Thursday's closing price of $615.67. So even as the stock drops, analysts see a lot of value—if you're willing to wait for the AI spending to pay off.

Technical Analysis

Looking at the charts, Meta is sitting in the lower half of its 52-week range after failing to hold the higher levels set earlier this year. That leans toward a more cautious intermediate trend. The stock is trading 5.2% below its 20-day simple moving average (SMA) and 5.4% below its 100-day SMA—a setup that points to sellers having the edge across both short- and mid-term timeframes.

But here's the interesting part: the moving average convergence divergence (MACD), a trend and momentum measure, remains above its signal line, and the histogram is positive. That suggests downside momentum may be easing even as the price pulls back. When MACD stays bullish during a drop, it often reflects dip-buying interest trying to stabilize the trend. So while the stock looks weak, there might be buyers lurking.

The 50-day SMA remains below the 200-day SMA following the death cross in December 2025, which keeps a longer-term "repair" narrative in place. With the stock also trading 10.2% below its 200-day SMA, rallies may need to prove themselves before the longer-term trend looks clean again.

• Key Resistance: $673.00 — an area where prior rallies have tended to stall.
• Key Support: $520.50 — a level where buyers have previously stepped in near the lows.

Top ETF Exposure

Meta's weight in several popular ETFs means that any significant inflows or outflows can trigger automatic buying or selling of the stock. Here are the top funds with the highest exposure:

• Capital Group Growth ETF (CGGR): 8.09% Weight
• First Trust Dow Jones Internet Index Fund (FDN): 9.17% Weight
• Natixis Loomis Sayles Focused Growth ETF (LSGR): 8.65% Weight

Significance: Because META carries such a heavy weight in these funds, any significant inflows or outflows will likely trigger automatic buying or selling of the stock.

META Price Action: Meta Platforms shares were down 7.99% at $615.67 at the time of publication on Thursday.