Here's a problem you don't want to have right before summer vacation season: Europe might be running out of jet fuel. The International Energy Agency dropped that warning on Thursday, saying the continent could have as little as six weeks' worth left. The culprit? A shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz, which is squeezing supply lines just as everyone starts planning their getaways.
IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol has called this blockade "the largest energy crisis we have ever faced." The longer it goes on, the worse it gets for global growth and inflation, with knock-on effects across gasoline, natural gas, and electricity. But for Europe, the immediate headache is in the skies.
This isn't just an airline problem. Air travel is a massive part of the European economy, contributing 851 billion euros in annual GDP and supporting 14 million jobs, according to airport group ACI Europe. A jet fuel shortage during the summer rush isn't a minor logistics issue; it's an economic threat.
The severity for airlines really depends on how long the barrels stop moving. The Strait of Hormuz is a superhighway for seaborne energy, carrying about a fifth of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas. If it stays closed, refiners and airlines will be competing for the same replacement cargoes, which is a great way to send prices soaring.
President Donald Trump has framed the situation as an opportunity for U.S. energy. He noted that some of the world's biggest tankers are arriving empty at American ports to load crude quickly. "It won't be easy … we will have that open fairly soon," Trump told reporters about efforts to clear the strait, adding that other countries that use the route will help out. Even with a ceasefire he announced earlier this week, commercial traffic hasn't restarted.
The diplomatic wheels are turning, with talks between the U.S. and Iran scheduled for Saturday in Islamabad. The goal is to end a six-week conflict, though Tehran has suggested the meeting could be shaky without concessions related to Lebanon and sanctions relief. The U.S. delegation is being led by Vice President JD Vance and includes Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner.
In the meantime, airlines are already feeling the heat. EasyJet said Thursday that conflict-driven fuel increases are weighing on bookings, with sales for later in the year down 2% compared to 2025. The airline absorbed roughly £25 million in extra fuel costs just in March and has hedged at least 70% of its summer fuel. That's a smart move, but it's a band-aid on a bigger wound.
ACI Europe has warned that peak summer travel could be disrupted, with harsh economic impacts for countries that depend on seasonal tourists. Oil markets are staying volatile as traders try to guess how long this supply disruption will last versus how quickly diplomacy can reopen the strait.
So, to recap: a key shipping lane is blocked, jet fuel stocks are dwindling, summer travel plans are hanging in the balance, and everyone's watching to see if Saturday's talks can untangle a geopolitical knot. It's a lot to process before you even book your flight.
